11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #272 · Surprise, AZ 85374

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 1990 Fair condition Est $91k · at est. ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1990 Mayfield mfg home located in the 55+ community of the Rose Garden. This home has large kitchen with panty and office area, large living room and formal dining area. 2 large bedrooms with walk in closets. Laundry area with desk/sewing table. Roof and AC are about 6 years old, Toilets are updated with dual flush high toilets. No disposal in kitchen, was advised by plumber to remove it. Washer dryer and fridge convey. Front screened in deck, large storage shed, ramp into the back door from the carport

Key facts

• Huge pantry
• Reverse osmosis
• Solar panels

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• HUGE PANTRY
• REVERSE OSMOSIS
• SOLAR PANELS
• SCREENED-IN FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: owner; Building area source: owner; Lot features documented by owner
• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment of $986.94
• HOA & community: Community pool; Association fees include sewer, trash, and water; Land lease (monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Modular/Pre-Fab property; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Steel frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Water purifier; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Bidet; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 404 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.07%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #33	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	4mo	$112,000	$83	91
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #25	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-2%)	2mo	$92,000	$70	90
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #165	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$94,500	$73	88
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #134	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+1%)	9mo	$75,000	$55	86
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #243	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,203 (-10%)	7mo	$135,000	$112	77
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #188	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	2mo	$80,000	$55	76
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #80	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	1mo	$120,000	$78	76
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #75	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	6mo	$62,000	$54	71
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #23	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,173 (-13%)	5mo	$79,990	$68	65
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #29	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,534 (+14%)	5mo	$73,500	$48	63
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #371	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	0mo	$64,000	$48	62
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #271	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	8mo	$74,000	$51	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $33,482
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $77,654
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 404
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $894	-5% $863	+0% $832	+5% $801	+10% $771
Rent	-10% $687	-5% $760	+0% $832	+5% $905	+10% $977
Rate	-1.0pp $877	-0.5pp $855	base $832	+0.5pp $809	+1.0pp $786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	44d	1	0.29mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	6d	1	0.30mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	25d	1	0.69mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	25d	1	0.69mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	2d	1	0.76mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	13d	1	0.76mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	25d	1	0.80mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	6d	1	0.80mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	25d	1	0.82mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	25d	1	0.83mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	25d	2	1.05mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	2d	3	1.13mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	6d	1	1.14mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,695	$1.34	2d	17	1.22mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	44d	1	1.22mi
10831 W Tropicana Cir Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$2,800	$2.81	21d	1	1.23mi
10814 W El Capitan Cir Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$3,000	$3.02	16d	1	1.27mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,017	$2.15	2d	1	1.35mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	17d	1	1.49mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 657-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $89,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $9,111
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,187
• After-tax cash flow: $7,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Upgrading the kitchen, bathroom, exterior, and HVAC system will significantly enhance its appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely dated and in poor condition
• Major bathroom vanity — small and outdated
• Major roof — visible wear on shingles
• Major exterior paint — moderate paint wear
• Major flooring — dated tile in kitchen and bathrooms
• Major interior walls/paint — dated wallpaper and paint
• Major HVAC system — outdated and likely inefficient

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale update bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will attract more buyers
• Resale repair and paint exterior — improving the exterior will make the home more appealing
• Resale replace flooring — modern flooring will make the home more appealing
• Resale update interior walls/paint — modernizing the interior will make the home more appealing
• Both upgrade HVAC system — an efficient HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improving the landscaping will make the home more appealing and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom vanity · small and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · visible wear on shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · moderate paint wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · dated tile in kitchen and bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · dated wallpaper and paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · outdated and likely inefficient	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale update bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale repair and paint exterior — improving the exterior will make the home more appealing ↑
• Resale replace flooring — modern flooring will make the home more appealing ↑
• Resale update interior walls/paint — modernizing the interior will make the home more appealing ↑
• Both upgrade HVAC system — an efficient HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improving the landscaping will make the home more appealing and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $89,000 ARMLS
• 2022-06-17 Sold (MLS) $80,000 ARMLS
• 2022-06-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-04-23 Listed $90,000 ARMLS