10511 Curving Creek Loop · Ruskin, FL 34219

$309,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 4,800 sqft lot $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The Athena floor plan in our Oakfield Lakes community features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, with a modern layout, and 2 car garage. The open-concept kitchen, dining, and living area include granite countertops, high ceilings, and brand-new stainless steel appliances. Homeowners can relax in their spacious primary bedroom with a en-suite bathroom and large walk-in closet. Enjoy the outdoors with a private backyard, or visit the resort style pool, and located in the community. This home is perfect for modern living and entertaining!

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Private backyard
• Resort style pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• RESORT STYLE POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Green energy-efficient features: HVAC, water heater, windows
• Financial info: Other annual assessment shown; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service Residential; Monthly HOA approximately $71.42 (quarterly fee shown $214.27); Community amenities: pool, playground, sidewalks, street lights; Deed restrictions; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (11 x 19); Driveway
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; BB/HS internet available; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Fire hydrant nearby; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; Under construction (projected completion March 20, 2026); One story; East-facing entry; Builder model: Athena
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Starlight Homes (Builder license CGC1529148)
• Exterior features: Patio; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Metered sprinkler/irrigation; Trees and landscaping; Corner lot with sidewalk; Asphalt public road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Blinds and shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet (upper level); Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $309,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,620.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $274,942 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,620
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10468 Curving Creek Loop	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	1mo	$319,990	$210	97
10515 Curving Creek Loop	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-10%)	1mo	$306,990	$225	82
10473 Curving Creek Loop	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-10%)	2mo	$279,990	$205	80
10464 Curving Creek Loop	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-10%)	3mo	$309,959	$227	78
12431 Hopscotch Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (-2%)	2mo	$312,000	$208	67
10724 Gentle Current Way	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (-2%)	1mo	$322,000	$215	66
12420 Hopscotch Ave	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (-2%)	1mo	$330,000	$220	66
10628 Hidden Banks Gln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-1%)	3mo	$323,750	$215	64
10631 Hidden Banks Gln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-1%)	2mo	$306,000	$203	63
10908 Curving Creek Loop	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+10%)	1mo	$329,990	$197	63
10643 Hidden Banks Gln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-1%)	3mo	$311,480	$207	62
9138 Dalera Cv	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+6%)	3mo	$325,000	$202	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-66,629
• Equity at exit: $47,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-97,652
• Equity at exit: $27,635

Cash invested: $89,494 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,749 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,794/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,886

Max offer price $304,024

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $3	+0% $-108	+5% $-218	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-325	-5% $-216	+0% $-108	+5% $1	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $53	-0.5pp $-26	base $-108	+0.5pp $-191	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,905
• Closing costs: $9,589
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	16d	1	0.04mi
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	5d	1	0.43mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	18d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-02
   price $309,990
3. 2026-04-23
   price $297,990
4. 2026-04-14
   price $314,440
5. 2026-03-25
   price $338,440
6. 2026-03-24
   price $279,990
7. 2026-03-23
   status Active
8. 2026-03-23
   price $338,440
9. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
10. 2026-03-02
    price $279,990
11. 2026-02-25
    listed $327,681 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,904
• − Property taxes: −$4,794
• − Insurance: −$1,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,639
• − Management: −$2,639
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$9,298
• Taxable loss: −$6,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,616
• After-tax cash flow: $322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property is under construction and requires extensive renovation, including exterior repairs, landscaping improvements, and HVAC upgrades. Significant value can be added through a comprehensive renovation.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof footprint suggests significant damage or wear.
• Major exterior siding — The siding appears weathered and in poor condition.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is sparse and overgrown, detracting from curb appeal.
• Major interior walls/paint — No interior walls or paint are visible, but the exterior suggests poor condition.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No systems are visible, but the overall condition suggests they may be outdated or in poor condition.
• Major windows — No windows are visible, but the overall condition suggests they may be in poor condition.
• Major flooring — No flooring is visible, but the overall condition suggests it may be in poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both extensive exterior renovation — A complete exterior renovation would improve both resale and rental value.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal would significantly boost both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC and mechanical upgrades — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both interior paint and updates — Painting the interior and making minor updates would improve the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both roof repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the roof would address a major issue and improve the home's overall condition, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof footprint suggests significant damage or wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding appears weathered and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is sparse and overgrown, detracting from curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No interior walls or paint are visible, but the exterior suggests poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No systems are visible, but the overall condition suggests they may be outdated or in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No windows are visible, but the overall condition suggests they may be in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No flooring is visible, but the overall condition suggests it may be in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both extensive exterior renovation — A complete exterior renovation would improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal would significantly boost both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical upgrades — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both interior paint and updates — Painting the interior and making minor updates would improve the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both roof repair or replacement — Repairing or replacing the roof would address a major issue and improve the home's overall condition, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $309,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $297,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $314,440 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $338,440 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $279,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $338,440 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $279,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $327,681 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid