2828 Tennessee Ave · Paducah, KY 42003

$49,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily · 97 Days on market

Built 1925 0.38 ac lot $32/sqft · 69% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! Looking for an affordable fixer-upper to try your hand at flipping? Or want to add a well priced income property to your portfolio? This 3 bed / 1 bath home has over 1500 square feet of living space and sits on a spacious 1/3 acre lot. Located close to amenities, downtown Paducah, and I-69 access, it doesn't get more convenient! Call today for your personal tour. Property being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Downtown access
• Income property

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• FIXER-UPPER
• INCOME PROPERTY
• SPACIOUS LOT
• CLOSE TO AMENITIES
• DOWNTOWN ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $695 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.0% vs local median 4.5% in Paducah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#197 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Paducah Independent (town): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #122 of 165 in KY (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Morgan Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 89% FRL); Paducah Middle School (math 19% / reading 36%, grade F, #168 of 217 statewide, top 78%, 652 students, 69% FRL); Paducah Tilghman High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 878 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $50k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.65%
• DSCR: 3.65
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,827
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -68.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2310 S 28th St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+4%)	11mo	$80,000	$50	62
3039 Old Mayfield Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,540 (-1%)	8mo	$159,500	$104	60
2516 Clark St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,653 (+7%)	0mo	$200,000	$121	60
2605 Adams St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,723 (+11%)	5mo	$178,000	$103	57
109 Beiderman St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,454 (-6%)	3mo	$25,000	$17	57
2617 Jefferson St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,450 (-6%)	7mo	$200,000	$138	51
2915 Mayfield Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-3%)	8mo	$199,000	$133	50
2018 S 29th St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,350 (-13%)	6mo	$120,000	$89	44
2014 Jackson St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,726 (+11%)	9mo	$180,550	$105	42
2542 Monroe St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,668 (+8%)	2mo	$187,000	$112	41
2500 Alabama St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-9%)	11mo	$105,000	$75	41
922 Stonebrook Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,745 (+13%)	7mo	$238,000	$136	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $36,135
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $88,370
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42003

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $126/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $695

Break-even live

Break-even rent $371

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $723	-5% $709	+0% $695	+5% $680	+10% $666
Rent	-10% $596	-5% $645	+0% $695	+5% $744	+10% $793
Rate	-1.0pp $720	-0.5pp $707	base $695	+0.5pp $682	+1.0pp $668

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1643 Monroe St Apt A Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	1127	$1,250	$1.11	45d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $49,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-04-16
    price $59,900 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! Looking for an affordable fixer-upper to try your hand at flipping? Or want to add a well priced income property to your portfolio? This 3 bed / 1 bath home has over 1500 square feet of living space and sits on a spacious 1/3 acre lot. Located close to amenities, downtown Paducah, and I-69 access, it doesn't get more convenient! Call today for your personal tour. Property being sold as-is.

15. 2026-04-02
    price $69,900 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! Looking for an affordable fixer-upper to try your hand at flipping? Or want to add a well priced income property to your portfolio? This 3 bed / 1 bath home has over 1500 square feet of living space and sits on a spacious 1/3 acre lot. Located close to amenities, downtown Paducah, and I-69 access, it doesn't get more convenient! Call today for your personal tour. Property being sold as-is.

16. 2026-03-12
    listed $79,900 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! Looking for an affordable fixer-upper to try your hand at flipping? Or want to add a well priced income property to your portfolio? This 3 bed / 1 bath home has over 1500 square feet of living space and sits on a spacious 1/3 acre lot. Located close to amenities, downtown Paducah, and I-69 access, it doesn't get more convenient! Call today for your personal tour. Property being sold as-is.

17. 2020-07-14
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $126 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $429 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: +$303/yr (+$25/mo · 239.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$126
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $7,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,915
• After-tax cash flow: $6,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paducah Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104650
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $30,067
• Composite: 23.41/100
• National rank: #7896
• State rank: #122 of 165 in KY

Livability — Paducah

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #9780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paducah, KY
• City population: 30,856
• Population (ZIP): 29,384

Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,237 people
• By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.31%
• Current HPI: 236.3013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+199.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $59,900 RASKMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $69,900 RASKMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $79,900 RASKMLS
• 2020-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-36.2%/yr

Latest (2020): $126 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.