101 Little Fox Way · Balch Springs, TX 75181

$294,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,908 sqft · Land · 122 Days on market

Built 2025 4,400 sqft lot $155/sqft · 18% above area Est $251k · 18% over $79/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 4,400 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.7% in Balch Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#487 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Achziger El (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 846 students, 75% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 597 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $259,321 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.47%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,749
• List price: $294,999
• Delta: 17.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-44,474
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-53,784
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 597
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,559/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,378

Max offer price $294,999

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $337	-5% $253	+0% $170	+5% $86	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $67	+0% $170	+5% $272	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $318	-0.5pp $245	base $170	+0.5pp $93	+1.0pp $16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Woodhill St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,950	$1.26	13d	1	0.76mi
4642 Elm Point Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	2100	$2,199	$1.05	8d	1	0.76mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,280	$1.08	23d	1	0.85mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	27d	1	0.92mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	10d	1	0.95mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,119	$1.18	5d	1	0.98mi
2829 Kerrville Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2349	$2,700	$1.15	7d	1	1.06mi
14419 Briarcrest Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,695	$1.26	46d	1	1.06mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,150	$1.30	15d	1	1.15mi
12416 Fish Rd Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1427	$2,011	$1.41	8d	1	1.16mi
2801 Sonora Ln Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,245	$1.16	27d	1	1.24mi
2800 Crockett Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	24d	1	1.28mi
13131 Rocky Ledge Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,883	$1.20	5d	1	1.29mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	23d	1	1.37mi
2724 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,300	$1.64	27d	1	1.40mi
14005 Cimarron Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	1.0	1252	$1,650	$1.32	27d	1	1.40mi
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	46d	1	1.45mi
12248 Ortega St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,970	$1.46	5d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $294,999 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,999 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,999 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,999 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,999 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,999 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,999 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,999 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,999 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $294,999 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,999 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,999 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,999 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,999 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,999 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,999 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $294,999
18. 2026-02-20
    listed $298,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,398 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,840/yr (+$320/mo · 246.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,559
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,489
• − Management: −$2,489
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$2,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$708
• After-tax cash flow: $2,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Balch Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #487
• US rank: #9673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 26,455
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $294,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $298,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

+60.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,559 · +60.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.