3229 Bolt Rope Dr · Texas City, TX 77539

$341,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,199 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,881 sqft lot $118/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Burnet plan in the Lago Mar community! This single-story home spans 2,199sq ft and includes 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a private study, and a 2-car garage. As you enter, the long foyer with vinyl flooring leads to 2 secondary bedrooms and a secondary bathroom on one side, and a 3rd bedroom, secondary bathroom, and utility room on the other. The bedrooms have carpet, a tall closet, and a bright window, while the bathrooms feature vinyl flooring and a tub/shower combo. At the end of the foyer, you'll find the family room, breakfast room, and L-shaped kitchen. The kitchen includes a tall pantry and kitchen island. The private study is perfect for an office, library, or secondary b

Key facts

• Private study
• Kitchen island
• Tall pantry

Tags

• PRIVATE STUDY
• TALL PANTRY
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• BACK PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $341,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $351,840.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $342k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-616/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $316k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Elva C Lobit Middle (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 582 students, 52% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 678 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $316,226 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14121 Baikal Manor Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,214 (+1%)	1mo	$349,990	$158	90
3315 Hidden Mist Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (-2%)	1mo	$344,990	$160	82
3214 Bolt Rope Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,452 (+12%)	1mo	$339,990	$139	76
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	2,063 (-6%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	76
14006 Baikal Manor Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,126 (-3%)	1mo	$325,990	$153	75
14318 Lunan Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,280 (+4%)	1mo	$364,987	$160	69
13601 Fairway Arbor Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,377 (+8%)	1mo	$394,990	$166	66
3005 Mariner Island Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+1%)	1mo	$386,990	$174	63
2921 Mariner Island Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,081 (-5%)	1mo	$375,990	$181	52
13714 Seneca Lake Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0	2,020 (-8%)	1mo	$291,400	$144	47
2917 Mariner Island Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,922 (-13%)	1mo	$360,990	$188	40
13525 Bonita Island Way	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-14%)	1mo	$288,900	$152	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-69,428
• Equity at exit: $52,460

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-99,990
• Equity at exit: $30,421

Cash invested: $98,515 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 678
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,162 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,845
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$440 /mo · $5,278/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$118
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,227

Max offer price $344,417

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $70	+0% $-51	+5% $-173	+10% $-294
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-176	+0% $-51	+5% $74	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $38	base $-51	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,960
• Closing costs: $10,555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	0d	1	0.01mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	45d	1	1.07mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	5d	2	1.22mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	23d	1	1.43mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	13d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $118 · $1,416/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $341,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,709
• − Property taxes: −$5,278
• − Insurance: −$1,759
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,036
• − Management: −$3,036
• − HOA: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$10,235
• Taxable loss: −$6,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,565
• After-tax cash flow: $949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home in the Lago Mar community is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $341,990 HARMLS