406 N 1st Ave · Marshalltown, IA 50158

$79,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1900 8,712 sqft lot Est $157k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 4 bedroom home with tons of room!! Main floor bedroom and 3 upstairs. Newer flooring. Nice wood staircase plus a back staircase. Newer flooring. Newer shingles. Spacious open floor plan. Detached double garage. Seller is selling property as is.

Key facts

• Newer shingles
• Wood staircase
• Main floor bedroom

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR BEDROOM
• WOOD STAIRCASE
• BACK STAIRCASE
• NEWER SHINGLES
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.5% in Marshalltown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#133 in IA, #2,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F.
• Marshalltown Community School District (town): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #278 of 289 in IA (top 96%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 35 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marshall County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.89%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,996
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 N 1st Ave	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,764 (0%)	0mo	$76,000	$43	100
208 N Center St	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,799 (+2%)	6mo	$129,000	$72	80
411 Park St	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,880 (+7%)	1mo	$193,900	$103	62
208 1/2 N 3rd Ave	0.24mi	4/1.5	1,560 (-12%)	9mo	$85,000	$54	60
9 S 4th St	0.62mi	4/1.5	1,680 (-5%)	4mo	$133,000	$79	58
511 Woodbury St	0.45mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,724 (-2%)	11mo	$153,500	$89	58
305 N 2nd St	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,520 (-14%)	6mo	$159,900	$105	56
209 N 5th Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,614 (-8%)	8mo	$124,900	$77	56
603 Jerome St	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,750 (-1%)	12mo	$180,000	$103	52
309 W State St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,570 (-11%)	2mo	$160,000	$102	49
608 W State St	0.66mi	4/2.5	1,906 (+8%)	10mo	$240,000	$126	41
618 Fremont St	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-9%)	17mo	$72,000	$45	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $21,366
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $62,811
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50158

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $954/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $584	-5% $561	+0% $539	+5% $516	+10% $493
Rent	-10% $432	-5% $485	+0% $539	+5% $592	+10% $646
Rate	-1.0pp $579	-0.5pp $559	base $539	+0.5pp $518	+1.0pp $497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
511 W State St Unit 3 Marshalltown, IA	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,150	$0.73	44d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   listed $79,900 Active
3. 2023-03-24
   listed $64,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,104 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$150/yr (+$13/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$954
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $5,504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,321
• After-tax cash flow: $5,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshalltown Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1918720
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,877
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3015
• State rank: #278 of 289 in IA

Livability — Marshalltown

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #2464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marshalltown, IA
• County: Marshall County · 31,396 people
• City population: 31,396
• Metro: Marshalltown, IA
• Population (ZIP): 31,396
• Household income: $70,367
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 369.0

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,166 people
• By 2030: 41,477 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 42,548 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 44,472 · +8.0%
• By 2075: 52,719 · +28.1%
• By 2100: 60,912 · +48.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 14% Asian 5% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: R (+15.6) · D 41.4% · R 57.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.9pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: -15.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.6 2020: R+7.7 2016: R+8.5 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.80%
• Current HPI: 177.4692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Marshalltown, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+23.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — IAR
• 2026-03-03 Listed $79,900 IAR
• 2023-03-24 Listed $64,900 IAR

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $954 · +34.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.