2454 Pinetree Dr · Mobile, AL 36617

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,695 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1988 7,562 sqft lot $24/sqft · 38% below area Est $105k · 38% under ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This large home is full of potential and ready for someone with vision to bring it to life. It offers three spacious bedrooms, roomy living and dining areas, and plenty of space to make your ideas happen. This property is perfect for a cash buyer or investor looking for a flip project or a great rental to add to their portfolio. The location is ideal, only minutes from the hospital, local shops, and popular restaurants. It also comes with a one car garage and a low maintenance backyard that makes it easy to manage once complete. With the right updates and care, this diamond in the rough can become a standout home that delivers strong returns. Now is your chance to turn potential into profit and make this property shine

Key facts

• 7,562 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 36 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.58%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,355
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -38.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2454 Pinetree Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,695 (0%)	1mo	$57,000	$21	99
1051 Summerville St	0.53mi	3/2.0	2,580 (-4%)	18mo	$174,000	$67	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $63,060
• Equity at exit: $35,957

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.18×
• Total profit: $148,877
• Equity at exit: $61,343

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36617

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,309/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $804	-5% $786	+0% $767	+5% $749	+10% $730
Rent	-10% $643	-5% $705	+0% $767	+5% $829	+10% $892
Rate	-1.0pp $800	-0.5pp $784	base $767	+0.5pp $750	+1.0pp $733

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2007 Allison St Unit 1 Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1805	$1,575	$0.87	44d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 734-char remark

   Show marketing remark (734 chars)

   This large home is full of potential and ready for someone with vision to bring it to life. It offers three spacious bedrooms, roomy living and dining areas, and plenty of space to make your ideas happen. This property is perfect for a cash buyer or investor looking for a flip project or a great rental to add to their portfolio. The location is ideal, only minutes from the hospital, local shops, and popular restaurants. It also comes with a one car garage and a low maintenance backyard that makes it easy to manage once complete. With the right updates and care, this diamond in the rough can become a standout home that delivers strong returns. Now is your chance to turn potential into profit and make this property shine

2. 2026-05-13
   price $65,000 734-char remark

   Show marketing remark (734 chars)

   This large home is full of potential and ready for someone with vision to bring it to life. It offers three spacious bedrooms, roomy living and dining areas, and plenty of space to make your ideas happen. This property is perfect for a cash buyer or investor looking for a flip project or a great rental to add to their portfolio. The location is ideal, only minutes from the hospital, local shops, and popular restaurants. It also comes with a one car garage and a low maintenance backyard that makes it easy to manage once complete. With the right updates and care, this diamond in the rough can become a standout home that delivers strong returns. Now is your chance to turn potential into profit and make this property shine

3. 2026-05-04
   status Active 734-char remark

   Show marketing remark (734 chars)

   This large home is full of potential and ready for someone with vision to bring it to life. It offers three spacious bedrooms, roomy living and dining areas, and plenty of space to make your ideas happen. This property is perfect for a cash buyer or investor looking for a flip project or a great rental to add to their portfolio. The location is ideal, only minutes from the hospital, local shops, and popular restaurants. It also comes with a one car garage and a low maintenance backyard that makes it easy to manage once complete. With the right updates and care, this diamond in the rough can become a standout home that delivers strong returns. Now is your chance to turn potential into profit and make this property shine

4. 2026-04-30
   historical 734-char remark

   Show marketing remark (734 chars)

   This large home is full of potential and ready for someone with vision to bring it to life. It offers three spacious bedrooms, roomy living and dining areas, and plenty of space to make your ideas happen. This property is perfect for a cash buyer or investor looking for a flip project or a great rental to add to their portfolio. The location is ideal, only minutes from the hospital, local shops, and popular restaurants. It also comes with a one car garage and a low maintenance backyard that makes it easy to manage once complete. With the right updates and care, this diamond in the rough can become a standout home that delivers strong returns. Now is your chance to turn potential into profit and make this property shine

5. 2026-04-08
   listed $75,000 Active 734-char remark

   Show marketing remark (734 chars)

   This large home is full of potential and ready for someone with vision to bring it to life. It offers three spacious bedrooms, roomy living and dining areas, and plenty of space to make your ideas happen. This property is perfect for a cash buyer or investor looking for a flip project or a great rental to add to their portfolio. The location is ideal, only minutes from the hospital, local shops, and popular restaurants. It also comes with a one car garage and a low maintenance backyard that makes it easy to manage once complete. With the right updates and care, this diamond in the rough can become a standout home that delivers strong returns. Now is your chance to turn potential into profit and make this property shine

6. 2026-04-03
   historical $75,000 734-char remark

   Show marketing remark (734 chars)

   This large home is full of potential and ready for someone with vision to bring it to life. It offers three spacious bedrooms, roomy living and dining areas, and plenty of space to make your ideas happen. This property is perfect for a cash buyer or investor looking for a flip project or a great rental to add to their portfolio. The location is ideal, only minutes from the hospital, local shops, and popular restaurants. It also comes with a one car garage and a low maintenance backyard that makes it easy to manage once complete. With the right updates and care, this diamond in the rough can become a standout home that delivers strong returns. Now is your chance to turn potential into profit and make this property shine

7. 2025-12-04
   price $69,300
8. 2025-10-27
   price $72,900
9. 2025-09-02
   listed $96,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,309 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,309 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,309
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $8,710
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,090
• After-tax cash flow: $7,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• City population: 205,729
• Population (ZIP): 11,952

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 97% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.78%
• Current HPI: 128.8377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-32.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $65,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-30 Delisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-08 Listed $75,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $75,000 GCMLS AL
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $69,300 WAMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $72,900 WAMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $96,500 WAMLS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,309 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.