28856 N 165th Pl · Scottsdale, AZ 85262

$515,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,795 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 1.00 ac lot 2-car garage $287/sqft · 6% below area Est $549k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful Santa Fe-style home on a HUGE 1-acre lot with MOUNTAIN VIEWS, ready to move in! Offering 4 beds, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage w/ extended driveway. The inviting interior boasts tons of natural light, a neutral palette, recessed lighting, tall ceilings, and wood-look tile flooring t/out. Designed for everyday living & entertaining, the seamlessly flowing open layout is sure to impress! The spotless kitchen boasts SS appliances, quartz counters, white shaker cabinets w/ crown molding, and an island w/ breakfast bar. Large main bedroom has a walk-in closet and an ensuite w/ dual quartz vanity. EXPANSIVE BACKYARD!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $515k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $448k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $448k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.6% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Sun Academy (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #208 of 1,109 statewide, top 19%, 322 students, 14% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 851 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($178k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($453k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $515k implies a 587% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $447,717 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.35%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $548,841
• List price: $515,000
• Delta: -6.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16314 E Bobwhite Way	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,832 (+2%)	13mo	$565,000	$308	67
28307 N 166th St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-9%)	2mo	$550,000	$336	64
16302 E Bobwhite Way	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-9%)	15mo	$540,000	$330	48
16342 E Dixileta Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,639 (-9%)	2mo	$475,000	$290	48
17045 E Bobwhite Way	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (+4%)	22mo	$499,900	$269	37
17009 E Bobwhite Way	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,639 (-9%)	21mo	$480,000	$293	33
16206 E Dixileta Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-12%)	12mo	$525,000	$333	30
17028 E Balancing Rock Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (-8%)	24mo	$545,000	$332	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-77,368
• Equity at exit: $76,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-59,550
• Equity at exit: $44,528

Cash invested: $144,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $584,900 ($324/sqft)
• Median days on market: 7 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85262

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 851
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,194/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$940
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,356

Max offer price $515,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $387	-5% $241	+0% $96	+5% $-50	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-81	+0% $96	+5% $272	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $355	-0.5pp $227	base $96	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,750
• Closing costs: $15,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16607 E Desert Vista Trl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$3,995	$2.73	10d	1	0.32mi
16015 E Wildcat Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,899	$1.16	53d	1	1.49mi
16015 E Wildcat Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,899	$1.16	43d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces2 open parking spacesRV access/parkingGarage door openerDirect garage access2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tankWater hauled
• Home design: Single-family residenceFee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame constructionFoam roof
• Exterior features: Front and back dirt yard areasNo fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveRefrigeratorDishwasherGarbage disposalKitchen islandBreakfast barDouble vanity in master bath
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningEvaporative coolingHeating present
• Interior features: High-speed internet availableDouble vanity in bathroomBreakfast bar9+ foot flat ceilingsNo interior stepsKitchen island3/4 bath in master bedroomDual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundryWasher/dryer hookups only

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $515,000 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $515,000 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $515,000 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $515,000 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $515,000 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $515,000 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $515,000 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $515,000 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $515,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $515,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $515,000 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $515,000 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $515,000 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $515,000 Active 159 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $515,000 Active 158 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $515,000 Active 157 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $515,000 Active 156 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $515,000 Active 155 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $515,000 Active 154 DOM
20. 2026-10-08
    days on market $515,000 Active 153 DOM
21. 2026-10-07
    days on market $515,000 Active 152 DOM
22. 2026-10-06
    days on market $515,000 Active 151 DOM
23. 2026-10-05
    days on market $515,000 Active 150 DOM
24. 2026-10-04
    days on market $515,000 Active 149 DOM
25. 2026-10-04
    days on market $515,000 Active 148 DOM
26. 2026-10-02
    days on market $515,000 Active 147 DOM
27. 2026-10-01
    days on market $515,000 Active 146 DOM
28. 2026-09-30
    days on market $515,000 Active 145 DOM
29. 2026-09-29
    days on market $515,000 Active 144 DOM
30. 2026-09-28
    days on market $515,000 Active 143 DOM
31. 2026-09-27
    days on market $515,000 Active 142 DOM
32. 2026-09-26
    days on market $515,000 Active 141 DOM
33. 2026-09-25
    days on market $515,000 Active 140 DOM
34. 2026-09-24
    days on market $515,000 Active 139 DOM
35. 2026-09-23
    days on market $515,000 Active 138 DOM
36. 2026-09-22
    days on market $515,000 Active 137 DOM
37. 2026-09-21
    days on market $515,000 Active 136 DOM
38. 2026-09-20
    days on market $515,000 Active 135 DOM
39. 2026-09-19
    days on market $515,000 Active 134 DOM
40. 2026-09-18
    days on market $515,000 Active 133 DOM
41. 2026-09-17
    days on market $515,000 Active 132 DOM
42. 2026-09-16
    days on market $515,000 Active 131 DOM
43. 2026-09-15
    days on market $515,000 Active 130 DOM
44. 2026-09-14
    days on market $515,000 Active 129 DOM
45. 2026-09-13
    days on market $515,000 Active 128 DOM
46. 2026-09-12
    days on market $515,000 Active 127 DOM
47. 2026-09-11
    days on market $515,000 Active 126 DOM
48. 2026-09-05
    days on market $515,000 Active 120 DOM
49. 2026-09-04
    days on market $515,000 Active 119 DOM
50. 2026-09-03
    days on market $515,000 Active 118 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,194 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,399 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,205/yr (+$184/mo · 184.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,848
• − Property taxes: −$1,194
• − Insurance: −$7,694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,298
• − Management: −$4,298
• − Depreciation: −$14,982
• Taxable loss: −$7,588
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,821
• After-tax cash flow: $2,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Santa Fe-style home on a 1-acre lot with mountain views is move-in ready with modern finishes and a spacious layout. It offers a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — refreshes the home's appearance and adds value ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Desert Sun Academy C AZ #208/1,109 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 Middle Sonoran Trails Middle School C- AZ #31/218 Nat'l #3,736/14,009 High Cactus Shadows High School D AZ #48/381 Nat'l #6,282/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,329
• Household income: $177,790
• Rent vs Own: 3.1% rent · 96.9% own

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.65%
• Current HPI: 286.3814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces2 open parking spacesRV access/parkingGarage door openerDirect garage access2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tankWater hauled
• Home design: Single-family residenceFee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame constructionFoam roof
• Exterior features: Front and back dirt yard areasNo fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwaveRefrigeratorDishwasherGarbage disposalKitchen islandBreakfast barDouble vanity in master bath
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningEvaporative coolingHeating present
• Interior features: High-speed internet availableDouble vanity in bathroomBreakfast bar9+ foot flat ceilingsNo interior stepsKitchen island3/4 bath in master bedroomDual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundryWasher/dryer hookups only

Price history

+626.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $545,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $560,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-04-08 Listed $614,900 ARMLS
• 2021-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+68.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,194 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.