15 Hereford Ave · Ferguson, MO 63135

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1929 0.44 ac lot $70/sqft · 31% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * BACK ON MARKET ~ Buyer financing fell through * * Welcome to Ferguson's sweetest little diamond in the rough! This charming 1920s brick bungalow sits atop a nearly HALF-ACRE lot with a view for miles. It offers more than 2000 square feet of finished living space, all ready for you to spruce up and make your own. You'll love the open living area, walk-out sunroom, built-in cabinets, vintage tile, and absolutely gorgeous original doors. Rip up the carpet and you'll find hardwood floors underneath. Open up the hall closet and you'll find mysterious stairs to nowhere. .. .fun story included! This home has been in the same family for 40+ years and is very solid overall, but it needs some

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• Built 1929
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (single phase); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Back yard; Some trees; Views; Near public transit; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one main level, one in basement)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement with a full bathroom; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 8.9% in Ferguson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lee Hamilton Elementary (math 5% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,026 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 278 students, 99% FRL); Ferguson Middle (math 3% / reading 14%, grade F, #376 of 391 statewide, top 96%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Mccluer High (math 0% / reading 17%, grade F, #511 of 521 statewide, top 98%, 1,181 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.47%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,190
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -54.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Royal Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,375 (+1%)	3mo	$110,000	$80	70
716 Nancy Pl	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,334 (-2%)	4mo	$149,000	$112	67
406 Teston Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (-3%)	4mo	$89,900	$68	65
437 Warfield Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,470 (+8%)	1mo	$60,000	$41	65
232 Wesley Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,266 (-7%)	6mo	$158,787	$125	61
847 N Florissant Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,422 (+4%)	3mo	$155,000	$109	56
315 Royal Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-14%)	3mo	$95,000	$81	55
615 Superior Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,296 (-5%)	6mo	$80,000	$62	52
231 Georgia Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,479 (+8%)	0mo	$79,000	$53	51
536 Ames Pl	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,304 (-4%)	5mo	$69,900	$54	48
230 Randolph Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,243 (-9%)	4mo	$85,000	$68	48
233 S Marguerite Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,282 (-6%)	3mo	$144,900	$113	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $16,369
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $78,317
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,588/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $848

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $441	-5% $414	+0% $387	+5% $360	+10% $333
Rent	-10% $281	-5% $334	+0% $387	+5% $440	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $411	base $387	+0.5pp $363	+1.0pp $338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 Emmett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	25d	1	0.29mi
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	18d	1	0.49mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,225	$1.28	0d	1	0.59mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,235	$1.34	0d	1	0.64mi
224 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$995	$1.06	0d	1	0.64mi
6156 Wulff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	960	$1,395	$1.45	0d	1	0.66mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	45d	1	0.69mi
541 Hentschel Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1305	$1,500	$1.15	6d	1	0.70mi
35 S Barat Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,150	$1.17	0d	1	0.70mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	19d	1	0.71mi
13 N Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,400	$1.23	12d	1	0.71mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	9d	1	0.74mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.74mi
338 Saint Louis Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	45d	1	0.76mi
265 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,350	$1.09	45d	1	0.79mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,025	$1.17	0d	1	0.81mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	0d	1	0.81mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	45d	1	0.81mi
360 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	45d	1	0.88mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	45d	1	0.90mi
617 Tesmore Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	45d	1	0.91mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,400	$1.49	25d	1	0.92mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,300	$1.38	45d	1	0.92mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	25d	1	0.93mi
519 Graf Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	887	$1,297	$1.46	22d	1	0.94mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	45d	1	0.94mi
6044 Cascade Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,150	$1.17	9d	1	0.95mi
1131 N Florissant Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1580	$1,390	$0.88	25d	1	0.96mi
1131 N Florissant Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1580	$1,390	$0.88	0d	1	0.96mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	45d	1	1.06mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	25d	1	1.07mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	16d	1	1.08mi
709 Suburban Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$1,400	$1.44	45d	1	1.08mi
450 S Dade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	25d	1	1.10mi
6867 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,580	$1.27	45d	1	1.13mi
46 Bascom Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	932	$1,175	$1.26	45d	1	1.26mi
153 Bascom Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1076	$1,195	$1.11	21d	1	1.27mi
6170 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,425	$1.11	3d	1	1.32mi
6170 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,500	$1.17	16d	1	1.32mi
171 Elbring Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,395	$1.38	14d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $95,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   status $95,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1032-char remark
7. 2026-04-22
   listed $95,000 Active 1032-char remark
8. 2026-04-22
   historical $95,000 1032-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,588 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,588 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,588
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,343
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$802
• After-tax cash flow: $3,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-04 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $95,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $95,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,588 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.