612 S Elgin Ave · Portales, NM 88130

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · Other · 57 Days on market

7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home will not qualify for financing. Great investment opportunity for a flip or a rental on an extra deep corner lot!

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Listed 56 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: 7000 sq ft lot (approximately 0.1607 acres)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating system
• Interior features: One full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($755 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#63 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Portales Municipal Schools (town): math 17% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #15 of 29 in NM (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 31 units permitted in Roosevelt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roosevelt County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.22%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $20,217
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $56,521
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88130

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $755 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $247/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$158
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $277

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 S Abilene Ave Unit 306 Portales, NM	1.0	1.0	600	$550	$0.92	44d	1	0.33mi
304 S Abilene Ave Portales, NM	1.0	1.0	600	$500	$0.83	44d	1	0.33mi
506 E 1st St Portales, NM	3.0	1.0	1100	$675	$0.61	44d	1	0.40mi
501 South Avenue B Unit 1 Portales, NM	2.0	1.0	756	$825	$1.09	44d	1	0.51mi
213 W 9th St Portales, NM	2.0	1.0	696	$800	$1.15	44d	1	0.51mi
805 South Avenue C Unit C Portales, NM	2.0	1.0	788	$1,100	$1.40	44d	1	0.57mi
416 W 6th St Portales, NM	2.0	1.0	688	$750	$1.09	44d	1	0.64mi
1400 South Ave E Apt 5 Portales, NM	2.0	1.0	672	$625	$0.93	44d	1	0.80mi
901 W 14th St Unit A Portales, NM	1.0	1.0	875	$675	$0.77	44d	1	1.02mi
1222 W Date St Unit C Portales, NM	2.0	1.0	829	$750	$0.90	44d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $35,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $35,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $35,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $35,000 Active 122-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $247 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $280 · $23/mo
• Expected delta: +$33/yr (+$3/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$247
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$724
• − Management: −$724
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $4,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $3,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portales Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502100
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $36,151
• Composite: 30.52/100
• National rank: #6209
• State rank: #15 of 29 in NM

Livability — Portales

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #13640

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portales, NM
• County: Roosevelt County · 17,842 people
• City population: 17,842
• Metro: Portales, NM
• Population (ZIP): 17,842
• Household income: $52,434
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Roosevelt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,821 people
• By 2030: 15,818 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 13,766 · -18.2%
• By 2050: 12,152 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 9,601 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 8,241 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Roosevelt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.4% · R 70.6% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: -29.9pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+29.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.72%
• Current HPI: 108.0555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Portales, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $35,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $247 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.