8649 Cobblestone Dr · Fort Pierce, FL 34945

$385,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,934 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2019 8,581 sqft lot Est $375k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic location! Lakefront Extended Cali model in one of the most desirable communities in Ft. Pierce. Modern amenities make this the perfect smart home. Control door locks, lights, thermostat, and lawn sprinklers from your phone. Builder's warranty is transferable to the new owner. Spacious, excellent for entertaining and/or large families. Upgraded light fixtures and kitchen sink. Lots of storage space, walk-in pantry, and separate laundry room with full-size washer and dryer. Screened in entrance and back porch. Make this beauty your home and have your morning coffee while enjoying the amazing lake views and wildlife activity.

Key facts

• Lake views
• 8,581 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (no pet restrictions)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $54; Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; Block construction; Shingle roof; Resale property; Planned zoning
• Construction: Built with block; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Room for a pool; Lakefront; West-facing view; Has view; Frontage approximately 20'

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Den; Family room
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast area; Kitchen/dining combo; Pantry; Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings; Wet bar; Walk-in closets; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry tub

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $339k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.7% in Fort Pierce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in FL, #3,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $338,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.60%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $375,196
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3312 Homestead Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,934 (0%)	11mo	$350,000	$181	64
3354 Trinity Cir	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,934 (0%)	7mo	$375,000	$194	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-74,319
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-79,018
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34945

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,794 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$531 /mo · $6,371/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$797
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,039

Max offer price $350,840

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8649 Cobblestone Dr Unit 8649 Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.0	1934	$4,200	$2.17	23d	1	0.01mi
9511 Potomac Dr Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,575	$1.41	23d	1	0.58mi
9617 Potomac Dr Fort Pierce, FL	4.0	2.0	1908	$2,450	$1.28	23d	1	0.64mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $385,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $385,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $385,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $385,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $385,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $385,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $385,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $385,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $385,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-04-03
    price $385,000
12. 2026-04-02
    price $374,000
13. 2026-02-23
    price $394,000
14. 2026-02-02
    price $399,000
15. 2026-01-31
    listed $375,000 Active
16. 2025-05-08
    historical $2,900
17. 2025-05-02
    price $2,900
18. 2025-04-19
    listed $3,000
19. 2024-08-10
    historical $3,200
20. 2024-07-19
    listed $3,200
21. 2024-05-30
    historical $3,200
22. 2024-03-19
    listed $3,200
23. 2024-03-19
    historical $3,200
24. 2024-01-24
    listed $3,200
25. 2023-03-08
    soldstatus $360,000 Closed 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Fantastic location! Lakefront Extended Cali model in one of the most desirable communities in Ft. Pierce. Modern amenities make this the perfect smart home. Control door locks, lights, thermostat, and lawn sprinklers from your phone. Builder's warranty is transferable to the new owner. Spacious, excellent for entertaining and/or large families. Upgraded light fixtures and kitchen sink. Lots of storage space, walk-in pantry, and separate laundry room with full-size washer and dryer. Screened in entrance and back porch. Make this beauty your home and have your morning coffee while enjoying the amazing lake views and wildlife activity.

26. 2023-02-09
    status Pending 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Fantastic location! Lakefront Extended Cali model in one of the most desirable communities in Ft. Pierce. Modern amenities make this the perfect smart home. Control door locks, lights, thermostat, and lawn sprinklers from your phone. Builder's warranty is transferable to the new owner. Spacious, excellent for entertaining and/or large families. Upgraded light fixtures and kitchen sink. Lots of storage space, walk-in pantry, and separate laundry room with full-size washer and dryer. Screened in entrance and back porch. Make this beauty your home and have your morning coffee while enjoying the amazing lake views and wildlife activity.

27. 2023-01-31
    price $375,000 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Fantastic location! Lakefront Extended Cali model in one of the most desirable communities in Ft. Pierce. Modern amenities make this the perfect smart home. Control door locks, lights, thermostat, and lawn sprinklers from your phone. Builder's warranty is transferable to the new owner. Spacious, excellent for entertaining and/or large families. Upgraded light fixtures and kitchen sink. Lots of storage space, walk-in pantry, and separate laundry room with full-size washer and dryer. Screened in entrance and back porch. Make this beauty your home and have your morning coffee while enjoying the amazing lake views and wildlife activity.

28. 2023-01-18
    listed $389,900 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Fantastic location! Lakefront Extended Cali model in one of the most desirable communities in Ft. Pierce. Modern amenities make this the perfect smart home. Control door locks, lights, thermostat, and lawn sprinklers from your phone. Builder's warranty is transferable to the new owner. Spacious, excellent for entertaining and/or large families. Upgraded light fixtures and kitchen sink. Lots of storage space, walk-in pantry, and separate laundry room with full-size washer and dryer. Screened in entrance and back porch. Make this beauty your home and have your morning coffee while enjoying the amazing lake views and wildlife activity.

29. 2005-12-02
    soldstatus $21,900,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,371 · $531/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,371 · $531/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$6,371
• − Insurance: −$7,044
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,643
• − Management: −$3,643
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$8,582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,060
• After-tax cash flow: $-261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Pierce

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #3360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 78,556
• Population (ZIP): 6,214

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 18% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.85%
• Current HPI: 402.2457
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $385,000 MARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $374,000 MARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $394,000 MARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $399,000 MARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $375,000 MARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Rental Removed $2,900 RMLSFL
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $2,900 RMLSFL
• 2025-04-19 Listed for Rent $3,000 RMLSFL
• 2024-08-10 Rental Removed $3,200 GFLMLS
• 2024-07-19 Listed for Rent $3,200 GFLMLS
• 2024-05-30 Rental Removed $3,200 GFLMLS
• 2024-03-19 Listed for Rent $3,200 GFLMLS
• 2024-03-19 Rental Removed $3,200 RMLSFL
• 2024-01-24 Listed for Rent $3,200 RMLSFL
• 2023-03-08 Sold (MLS) $360,000 Beaches MLS
• 2023-02-09 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2023-01-31 Price Changed $375,000 Beaches MLS
• 2023-01-18 Listed $389,900 Beaches MLS
• 2005-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $21,900,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+39.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,371 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.