15881 Winthrop St · Detroit, MI 48227

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1926 7,841 sqft lot $130/sqft · 78% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Built 1926
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no garage)
• Utilities: Water available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Ground-level entry with steps; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Aluminum siding exterior
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.18 acres (50 x 156.65)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 10.2% in Detroit — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 385 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $116,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,189
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 51.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15915 Sussex St	0.27mi	4/1.5 (+1)	941 (+2%)	8mo	$60,000	$64	71
15918 Sussex St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+8%)	6mo	$52,000	$52	68
16246 Coyle St	0.40mi	3/1.0	848 (-8%)	1mo	$50,000	$59	67
15454 Asbury Park	0.48mi	3/1.5	956 (+4%)	5mo	$149,000	$156	66
16853 Mansfield St	0.54mi	3/2.0	950 (+3%)	4mo	$205,000	$216	63
15461 Marlowe St	0.58mi	3/1.0	963 (+4%)	7mo	$42,000	$44	60
16253 Strathmoor St	0.66mi	3/1.0	900 (-3%)	6mo	$80,000	$89	59
15746 Coyle St	0.38mi	3/1.0	814 (-12%)	5mo	$41,500	$51	58
15751 Biltmore St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+8%)	5mo	$119,000	$119	57
15808 Coyle St	0.35mi	3/1.0	811 (-12%)	8mo	$70,000	$86	57
15300 Asbury Park Park	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,052 (+14%)	7mo	$58,500	$56	43
15476 Strathmoor St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,041 (+13%)	4mo	$55,000	$53	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-6,819
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $21,370
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48227

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 385
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,337 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,843/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,159

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15375 Prevost St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.0	907	$1,300	$1.43	16d	1	0.36mi
15468 Sussex St #2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	43d	1	0.40mi
15736 Biltmore St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	16d	1	0.51mi
15330 Coyle St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,375	$1.38	24d	1	0.54mi
15330 Coyle St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,425	$1.43	12d	1	0.54mi
15330 Coyle St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	24d	1	0.54mi
15328 Coyle St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	17d	1	0.55mi
15100 Whitcomb St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	750	$925	$1.23	43d	1	0.56mi
15341 Lauder St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1080	$1,475	$1.37	16d	1	0.61mi
17165 Prevost St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,400	$2.26	1d	1	0.63mi
14893 Prest St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	14d	1	0.71mi
15065 Gilchrist St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	43d	1	0.73mi
14836 Rutherford St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1104	$950	$0.86	43d	1	0.76mi
14753 Saint Marys St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	12d	1	0.82mi
14753 Saint Marys St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	4d	1	0.82mi
14814 Sussex St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	43d	1	0.82mi
15073 Strathmoor St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	860	$1,350	$1.57	16d	1	0.83mi
16505 Stansbury St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	10d	1	0.96mi
14535 Mettetal St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	965	$1,000	$1.04	43d	1	0.98mi
15517 Lesure St Unit BDRM1A Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	24d	1	1.00mi
15387 Lesure St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,350	$1.27	12d	1	1.04mi
14716 Archdale St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.07mi
14559 Strathmoor St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1033	$1,150	$1.11	20d	1	1.10mi
18268 Mansfield St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	16d	1	1.14mi
18400 Rutherford St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	3d	1	1.19mi
14264 Coyle St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	43d	1	1.20mi
18427 Greenfield Rd Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	952	$980	$1.03	4d	1	1.20mi
14903 Tracey St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1004	$1,100	$1.10	16d	1	1.24mi
15340 Hartwell St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	16d	1	1.24mi
18481 Prest St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,300	$1.18	19d	1	1.26mi
18276 Oakfield St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	726	$1,175	$1.62	43d	1	1.31mi
14891 Hartwell St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	43d	1	1.34mi
18010 Lesure St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,550	$1.53	24d	1	1.37mi
16503 Ward Ave Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	43d	1	1.39mi
14284 Cruse St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1121	$1,150	$1.03	16d	1	1.43mi
15738 Sorrento Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	762	$1,175	$1.54	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    historical
15. 2026-05-04
    historical
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $119,900 Active
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $119,900 Active
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $119,900 Active
19. 2026-04-24
    listed $119,900 Active
20. 2015-02-23
    historical
21. 2015-02-23
    historical
22. 2014-12-12
    listed $5,000 Active
23. 2014-05-13
    listed $5,000 Active
24. 2014-05-13
    historical
25. 2014-05-13
    historical
26. 2013-05-07
    listed $5,000
27. 2013-05-07
    listed $5,000
28. 2013-05-07
    historical
29. 2013-05-07
    historical
30. 2013-02-28
    listed $8,500
31. 2013-02-28
    listed $8,500
32. 2013-02-27
    historical
33. 2013-02-27
    historical
34. 2013-02-18
    listed $3,500
35. 2013-02-18
    listed $3,500
36. 2011-12-28
    historical
37. 2011-12-28
    historical
38. 2011-12-20
    listed $6,900
39. 2011-10-17
    listed $6,900
40. 2011-06-15
    historical
41. 2011-06-01
    historical
42. 2010-12-29
    listed $8,500
43. 2010-12-29
    listed $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,843 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,843 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,843
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$168
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$40
• After-tax cash flow: $1,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 40,302
• Household income: $36,527
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2371.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% Two or more races 3% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.00%
• Current HPI: 186.4158
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+1310.6% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-24 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-24 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-02-23 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-02-23 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-12-12 Listed $5,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-05-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-05-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2014-05-13 Listed $5,000 REALCOMP
• 2013-05-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-05-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2013-05-07 Listed $5,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-05-07 Listed $5,000 REALCOMP
• 2013-02-28 Listed $8,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-02-28 Listed $8,500 REALCOMP
• 2013-02-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2013-02-27 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-02-18 Listed $3,500 REALCOMP
• 2013-02-18 Listed $3,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-12-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-12-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2011-12-20 Listed $6,900 REALCOMP
• 2011-10-17 Listed $6,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-06-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-06-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-12-29 Listed $8,500 REALCOMP
• 2010-12-29 Listed $8,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,843 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.