Sentosa Plan · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$222,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 152 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Plan
• Financial info: List price $221,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan (Sentosa); Single-family plan
• Exterior features: Located at 1215 Good Prairie Ave, Wolfforth, TX 79382

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of 1575 (living area shown in property info)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-381/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $191,057 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $119,458
• Equity at exit: $200,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $353,432
• Equity at exit: $433,238

Cash invested: $62,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,911 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,345/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,951

Max offer price $218,405

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,750
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	43d	1	0.08mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	21d	1	0.14mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	13d	1	0.23mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	43d	1	0.28mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	43d	1	0.45mi
2304 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	43d	1	0.47mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	13d	1	0.48mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit 2001 B Corpus Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.51mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	13d	1	0.51mi
2006 Corpus Ave Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,425	$1.17	13d	1	0.52mi
2001 Bryan Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,400	$1.03	43d	1	0.54mi
2008 Bryan Ave Unit Harvest-2008 A Bryan Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,400	$1.14	43d	1	0.55mi
304 E 19th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	13d	1	0.57mi
2011 Bryan Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	43d	1	0.58mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	43d	1	0.60mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	21d	1	0.60mi
407 E 21st St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,399	$1.03	21d	1	0.61mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	13d	1	0.61mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	13d	2	0.70mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	21d	1	0.87mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	43d	1	0.89mi
7731 97th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	0.90mi
7729 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,300	$1.16	13d	1	0.95mi
7732 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	0.96mi
7510 102nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,600	$1.06	43d	1	1.00mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	43d	1	1.04mi
2916 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	43d	1	1.06mi
7456 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,700	$1.16	43d	1	1.08mi
7449 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,625	$1.10	21d	1	1.10mi
7729 92nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	1810	$2,495	$1.38	21d	1	1.11mi
7440 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,600	$1.01	13d	1	1.15mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	43d	1	1.15mi
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	13d	1	1.20mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	13d	1	1.21mi
7424 104th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,750	$1.10	43d	1	1.23mi
209 Sooner St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,875	$0.96	43d	1	1.30mi
7350 100th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	43d	1	1.31mi
7811 86th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,025	$1.18	21d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $222,999 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $222,999 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $222,999 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $222,999 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $222,999 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $222,999 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $222,999 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $222,999 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $222,999 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $222,999 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $221,999 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $221,999 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $221,999 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $221,999 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $221,999 Active 133 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$3,345
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,834
• − Management: −$1,834
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable loss: −$4,180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,003
• After-tax cash flow: $622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B