5061 Nunes Rd #36 · Keyes, CA 95382

$60,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 66 Days on market

Built 1969 Average condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this clean, well-maintained mobile home offering generous space and a layout designed for comfortable everyday living. Nestled in a well-kept park, this home combines convenience and value with its prime location near schools, shopping, dining, and easy freeway accessmaking daily commutes and errands effortless. With plenty of room to personalize and make it your own, plus the added benefit of affordable space rent, this is a fantastic opportunity for comfortable and budget-friendly living in a highly accessible area.

Key facts

• Well-kept park
• Easy freeway access
• Prime location

Tags

• WELL-KEPT PARK
• PRIME LOCATION
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $800 land lease amount
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured (double wide) in a park; Built in 1969
• Construction: Wood skirting; Manatee manufactured home
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Fenced lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Wood countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wall and window cooling units
• Interior features: Great room living area; Formal dining area; Wood countertops
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with 220V electric

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.1% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.16%
• DSCR: 6.21
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $92,094
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.15×
• Total profit: $204,050
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95382

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $1,640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,682	-5% $1,661	+0% $1,640	+5% $1,620	+10% $1,599
Rent	-10% $1,435	-5% $1,538	+0% $1,640	+5% $1,743	+10% $1,846
Rate	-1.0pp $1,671	-0.5pp $1,656	base $1,640	+0.5pp $1,625	+1.0pp $1,609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5232 Clark St Keyes, CA	3.0	2.0	1133	$2,200	$1.94	14d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $60,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 44 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,497
• − Management: −$2,497
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $19,914
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,779
• After-tax cash flow: $14,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Upgrades to the interior and exterior can significantly enhance its appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Moderate Bathroom fixtures — Need cleaning and possibly replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Fresh fixtures improve functionality and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom fixtures · Need cleaning and possibly replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$6,000–30,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Fresh fixtures improve functionality and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Keyes

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #26476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keyes, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 3,939
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,083
• Household income: $95,282
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 6% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -312.66%
• Current HPI: 279.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B