🏷️ Likely Rental
4116 Southview Dr · Macon-Bibb County, GA
Flood risk 7/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $963 – $1,789
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 66.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +25.5/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +8.4/10.0
- 1% rule +5.7/10.0
- Appreciation +5.0/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.2/10.0
$105,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Conveniently located near shopping and freeway access. Established neighborhood. This home has character! Serious inquiries only. Priced to sale. You can make this your next home, or use for an income property. Do not disturb tenant. Please call agent, or have your agent call agent for viewing details.
Key facts
- Freeway access
- Shopping access
- 0.26 acre lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
- Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $4k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
- Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $25k; list at $105k implies a 320% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.07% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.09%
- Cash-on-cash
- 9.98%
- DSCR
- 1.44
- GRM
- 7.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $134,218
- List price
- $105,000
- Delta
- -21.77%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3966 Mickey St | 0.58mi | 3/2.0 | 1,088 (+2%) | 2mo | $160,000 | $147 | 63 |
| 3979 Spencer Cir | 0.61mi | 3/1.0 | 1,100 (+3%) | 10mo | $95,000 | $86 | 58 |
| 3765 Lindsey Dr | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 | 1,060 (-0%) | 16mo | $146,000 | $138 | 51 |
| 3867 Lindwood Dr | 0.73mi | 3/1.0 | 1,125 (+6%) | 9mo | $107,000 | $95 | 49 |
| 3042 Ohara Dr S | 0.61mi | 3/1.5 | 1,040 (-2%) | 22mo | $125,000 | $120 | 47 |
| 3852 Tyler Dr | 0.72mi | 3/2.0 | 1,000 (-6%) | 11mo | $125,000 | $125 | 43 |
| 3860 Lindwood Dr | 0.75mi | 3/1.0 | 1,200 (+13%) | 9mo | $50,000 | $42 | 36 |
| 3741 Lindsey Dr | 0.64mi | 3/2.0 | 1,160 (+9%) | 23mo | $120,000 | $103 | 32 |
| 3910 Saint Charles Pl | 0.73mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 928 (-13%) | 11mo | $17,500 | $19 | 30 |
| 4039 Lindsey Dr | 0.71mi | 3/1.0 | 1,200 (+13%) | 21mo | $53,750 | $45 | 28 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 14.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.82×
- Total profit
- $23,990
- Equity at exit
- $47,213
- IRR
- 16.1%
- Equity multiple
- 3.37×
- Total profit
- $69,541
- Equity at exit
- $72,760
Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Georgia
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 31205
- Active inventory
- 1
- Price-to-rent
- 7.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,121 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$551
- Tax from tax record
- −$46 /mo · $557/yr
- Insurance
- −$44
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$66 /mo · $798/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$235
- Net cashflow
- $178
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $237 | -5% $208 | +0% $178 | +5% $148 | +10% $119 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $89 | -5% $134 | +0% $178 | +5% $222 | +10% $267 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $231 | -0.5pp $205 | base $178 | +0.5pp $151 | +1.0pp $123 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $26,250
- Closing costs
- $3,150
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 25 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4028 Saint Charles Pl Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $800 | $0.89 | 21d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 3823 Saint Charles Pl Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1020 | $1,150 | $1.13 | 44d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 1332 Hillridge Dr Macon, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1050 | $1,050 | $1.00 | 14d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 3257 Ohara Dr S Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1352 | $1,125 | $0.83 | 21d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 3837 Spencer Cir Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1080 | $1,300 | $1.20 | 44d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 1289 Rocky Creek Rd Macon, GA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1404 | $750 | $0.53 | 44d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 3778 Spencer Cir Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 864 | $1,300 | $1.50 | 21d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 3685 Rice Mill Rd Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1152 | $1,450 | $1.26 | 44d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 1240 Rocky Creek Rd Unit A Macon, GA | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1342 | $1,090 | $0.81 | 21d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 1260 Auburn Dr Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 864 | $1,295 | $1.50 | 21d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 1260 Auburn Dr Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 864 | $1,075 | $1.24 | 44d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 4300 Essex Rd Macon, GA | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1246 | $1,450 | $1.16 | 21d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 1156 Triple Hill Dr Macon, GA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 980 | $875 | $0.89 | 14d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 4278 Vinson Ave Macon, GA | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1104 | $1,550 | $1.40 | 21d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 2427 Vivian Dr Macon, GA | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1056 | $1,150 | $1.09 | 44d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 2418 Adger Rd Macon, GA | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1365 | $1,500 | $1.10 | 44d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 4455 Fairfax Dr Macon, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1352 | $1,225 | $0.91 | 44d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 2423 Thrasher Ave Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1056 | $725 | $0.69 | 44d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 2459 Vivian Dr Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 792 | $850 | $1.07 | 14d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 1148 N Beddingfield Dr Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1076 | $825 | $0.77 | 44d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 955 Putnam St Unit 1 Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 950 | $1,199 | $1.26 | 44d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 906 Thomas St Macon, GA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $650 | $0.81 | 44d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 4322 Mikado Ave Macon, GA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1344 | $1,230 | $0.92 | 21d | 1 | 1.42mi |
| 1164 Newberg Ave Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $1,195 | $1.09 | 44d | 1 | 1.42mi |
| 2477 Thrasher Ave Macon, GA | 3.0 | 1.0 | 960 | $825 | $0.86 | 14d | 1 | 1.42mi |
Listing history 24 events
-
2026-06-19days on market $105,000 Active 238 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $105,000 Active 237 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $105,000 Active 236 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $105,000 Active 235 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $105,000 Active 234 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $105,000 Active 232 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $105,000 Active 231 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $105,000 Active 229 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $105,000 Active 228 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $105,000 Active 227 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $105,000 Active 226 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $105,000 Active 222 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $105,000 Active 221 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $105,000 Active 220 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $105,000 Active 219 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $105,000 Active 218 DOM
-
2026-02-12price $105,000 303-char remark
Show marketing remark (303 chars)
Conveniently located near shopping and freeway access. Established neighborhood. This home has character! Serious inquiries only. Priced to sale. You can make this your next home, or use for an income property. Do not disturb tenant. Please call agent, or have your agent call agent for viewing details.
-
2026-02-12price $105,000 303-char remark
Show marketing remark (303 chars)
Conveniently located near shopping and freeway access. Established neighborhood. This home has character! Serious inquiries only. Priced to sale. You can make this your next home, or use for an income property. Do not disturb tenant. Please call agent, or have your agent call agent for viewing details.
-
2026-02-12price $105,000
Show marketing remark (303 chars)
Conveniently located near shopping and freeway access. Established neighborhood. This home has character! Serious inquiries only. Priced to sale. You can make this your next home, or use for an income property. Do not disturb tenant. Please call agent, or have your agent call agent for viewing details.
-
2025-10-24$135,000 New
Show marketing remark (303 chars)
Conveniently located near shopping and freeway access. Established neighborhood. This home has character! Serious inquiries only. Priced to sale. You can make this your next home, or use for an income property. Do not disturb tenant. Please call agent, or have your agent call agent for viewing details.
-
2025-10-24$135,000 Active 303-char remark
Show marketing remark (303 chars)
Conveniently located near shopping and freeway access. Established neighborhood. This home has character! Serious inquiries only. Priced to sale. You can make this your next home, or use for an income property. Do not disturb tenant. Please call agent, or have your agent call agent for viewing details.
-
2025-09-29$135,000 Active 303-char remark
Show marketing remark (303 chars)
Conveniently located near shopping and freeway access. Established neighborhood. This home has character! Serious inquiries only. Priced to sale. You can make this your next home, or use for an income property. Do not disturb tenant. Please call agent, or have your agent call agent for viewing details.
-
2019-11-22soldstatus $25,000
-
2019-11-17$29,900
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $557 · $46/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $966 · $80/mo
- Expected delta
- +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 73.4%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $13,447
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,882
- − Property taxes
- −$557
- − Insurance
- −$1,322
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,076
- − Management
- −$1,076
- − Depreciation
- −$3,055
- Taxable income
- $480
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$115
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,021/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Bibb County
- NCES district ID
- 1300420
- Math proficiency
- 11% ▼ -14.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 18% ▼ -11.00%
- Median HH income
- $37,426
- Composite
- 12.13/100
- National rank
- #9654
- State rank
- #161 of 174 in GA
Livability — Macon-Bibb County
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Macon-Bibb County, GA
Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 148,772 people
- By 2030
- 145,904 · -1.9%
- By 2040
- 139,404 · -6.3%
- By 2050
- 131,603 · -11.5%
- By 2075
- 111,050 · -25.4%
- By 2100
- 83,346 · -44.0%
Not yet ingested
- Political lean
- —
- Race & ethnicity
- —
- Common origin
- —
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- —
- Current HPI
- —
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.66%
- F500 in state
- 28
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Paper / Packaging | 2 | $29B |
|
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| Retail | 1 | $160B |
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| Transportation / Logistics | 1 | $91B |
|
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| Airlines | 1 | $62B |
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| Consumer Goods | 1 | $47B |
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| Utilities | 1 | $25B |
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Price history
+251.2% since first listed8 events — show timeline
- 2026-02-12 Price Changed $105,000 CGMLS
- 2026-02-12 Price Changed $105,000 MGMLS
- 2026-02-12 Price Changed $105,000 GAMLS
- 2025-10-24 Listed $135,000 CGMLS
- 2025-10-24 Listed $135,000 GAMLS
- 2025-09-29 Listed $135,000 MGMLS
- 2019-11-22 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MGMLS
- 2019-11-17 Listed $29,900 MGMLS
Property tax history
+4.5%/yrLatest (2025): $557 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…