21218 E Pecan Ln · Queen Creek, AZ 85142

$415,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,105 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2014 4,950 sqft lot $197/sqft · 16% below area Est $493k · 16% under $126/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**$22K PRICE IMPROVEMENT** Welcome home to this charming 4-bedroom, two-story residence in the sought-after Hastings Farms community. Featuring a spacious split floor plan and an open, inviting living area, this home is perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The updated kitchen shines with granite countertops, a large center island, abundant cabinetry, and a cozy eat-in nook ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, all four bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, including a generous primary suite with dual sinks, a walk-in shower, private water closet, and an expansive walk-in closet. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard ready to become your dream outdoor retreat. Residents of Hastings Farms enjoy multiple parks, ramadas with grills, a soccer field, basketball courts, and nearly 10 miles of scenic walking paths. Comfort, convenience, and community--this home truly has it all.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Updated kitchen
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• COZY EAT-IN NOOK
• LOW-MAINTENANCE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-490 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.7% in Queen Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#27 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Queen Creek Unified District (4245) (suburban): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #25 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 850 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($390k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $77k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,666 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $492,927
• List price: $415,000
• Delta: -15.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23658 S 210th Pl	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,105 (0%)	1mo	$535,000	$254	86
20988 E Cherrywood Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,105 (0%)	2mo	$442,500	$210	82
24159 S 215th Way	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,167 (+3%)	1mo	$565,000	$261	69
22838 S Legends Rd	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,107 (+0%)	2mo	$540,000	$256	68
21139 E Camina Plata St	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,264 (+8%)	1mo	$499,000	$220	62
21145 E Camina Plata --	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,264 (+8%)	3mo	$480,000	$212	60
23437 S 209th Pl	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,382 (+13%)	1mo	$600,000	$252	58
21516 E Pecan Ct	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,396 (+14%)	3mo	$700,000	$292	51
22660 S 212th St	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,275 (+8%)	3mo	$460,000	$202	49
22675 S 212th St	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,288 (+9%)	3mo	$520,000	$227	48
21388 E Via Del Oro --	0.54mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,335 (+11%)	0mo	$568,750	$244	47
22938 S 208th St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,870 (-11%)	3mo	$459,000	$245	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-105,095
• Equity at exit: $61,878

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-157,591
• Equity at exit: $35,882

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85142

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 850
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,316/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$126
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,378

Max offer price $328,357

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21005 E Pecan Ln Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	5d	1	0.24mi
22940 S 213th St Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	2872	$4,500	$1.57	43d	1	0.52mi
23277 S 215th St Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1692	$2,400	$1.42	43d	1	0.56mi
21316 E Via del Rancho Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	2400	$2,495	$1.04	43d	1	0.57mi
23196 S 216th St Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	2111	$2,470	$1.17	24d	1	0.64mi
21162 E Aspen Valley Dr Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1681	$2,750	$1.64	16d	1	0.74mi
20902 E Via del Palo Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1678	$2,215	$1.32	17d	1	0.74mi
18446 E Peachtree Blvd Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	2915	$3,500	$1.20	14d	1	0.87mi
21122 E Stonecrest Dr Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	1864	$2,100	$1.13	5d	1	0.89mi
21187 E Tierra Grande Dr Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	1675	$2,100	$1.25	24d	1	0.91mi
22063 E Via del Rancho Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,725	$1.33	18d	1	0.93mi
22224 S 211th Way Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	2171	$2,400	$1.11	3d	1	0.97mi
22203 S 214th St Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,500	$1.47	24d	1	1.03mi
22249 E Calle de Flores Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	2702	$2,549	$0.94	17d	1	1.08mi
22217 E Via del Palo Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.5	1775	$2,100	$1.18	43d	1	1.12mi
21937 S 214th St Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,405	$1.35	24d	1	1.22mi
21937 S 214th St Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,305	$1.29	16d	1	1.22mi
22258 E Cherrywood Ct Queen Creek, AZ	5.0	3.0	2218	$2,770	$1.25	1d	1	1.28mi
21286 E Estrella Rd Queen Creek, AZ	5.0	3.0	1987	$3,300	$1.66	14d	1	1.32mi
22352 E Via del Palo Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1863	$2,149	$1.15	10d	1	1.35mi
22360 E Via del Rancho Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.0	1527	$2,100	$1.38	20d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $126 · $1,512/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $415,000 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   **$22K PRICE IMPROVEMENT** Welcome home to this charming 4-bedroom, two-story residence in the sought-after Hastings Farms community. Featuring a spacious split floor plan and an open, inviting living area, this home is perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The updated kitchen shines with granite countertops, a large center island, abundant cabinetry, and a cozy eat-in nook ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, all four bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, including a generous primary suite with dual sinks, a walk-in shower, private water closet, and an expansive walk-in closet. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard ready to become your dream outdoor retreat. Residents of Hastings Farms enjoy multiple parks, ramadas with grills, a soccer field, basketball courts, and nearly 10 miles of scenic walking paths. Comfort, convenience, and community--this home truly has it all.

2. 2026-04-16
   price $437,000 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   **$22K PRICE IMPROVEMENT** Welcome home to this charming 4-bedroom, two-story residence in the sought-after Hastings Farms community. Featuring a spacious split floor plan and an open, inviting living area, this home is perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The updated kitchen shines with granite countertops, a large center island, abundant cabinetry, and a cozy eat-in nook ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, all four bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, including a generous primary suite with dual sinks, a walk-in shower, private water closet, and an expansive walk-in closet. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard ready to become your dream outdoor retreat. Residents of Hastings Farms enjoy multiple parks, ramadas with grills, a soccer field, basketball courts, and nearly 10 miles of scenic walking paths. Comfort, convenience, and community--this home truly has it all.

3. 2026-04-02
   price $460,000 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   **$22K PRICE IMPROVEMENT** Welcome home to this charming 4-bedroom, two-story residence in the sought-after Hastings Farms community. Featuring a spacious split floor plan and an open, inviting living area, this home is perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The updated kitchen shines with granite countertops, a large center island, abundant cabinetry, and a cozy eat-in nook ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, all four bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, including a generous primary suite with dual sinks, a walk-in shower, private water closet, and an expansive walk-in closet. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard ready to become your dream outdoor retreat. Residents of Hastings Farms enjoy multiple parks, ramadas with grills, a soccer field, basketball courts, and nearly 10 miles of scenic walking paths. Comfort, convenience, and community--this home truly has it all.

4. 2026-03-16
   price $480,000 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   **$22K PRICE IMPROVEMENT** Welcome home to this charming 4-bedroom, two-story residence in the sought-after Hastings Farms community. Featuring a spacious split floor plan and an open, inviting living area, this home is perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The updated kitchen shines with granite countertops, a large center island, abundant cabinetry, and a cozy eat-in nook ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, all four bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, including a generous primary suite with dual sinks, a walk-in shower, private water closet, and an expansive walk-in closet. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard ready to become your dream outdoor retreat. Residents of Hastings Farms enjoy multiple parks, ramadas with grills, a soccer field, basketball courts, and nearly 10 miles of scenic walking paths. Comfort, convenience, and community--this home truly has it all.

5. 2026-02-20
   listed $492,000 Active 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   **$22K PRICE IMPROVEMENT** Welcome home to this charming 4-bedroom, two-story residence in the sought-after Hastings Farms community. Featuring a spacious split floor plan and an open, inviting living area, this home is perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The updated kitchen shines with granite countertops, a large center island, abundant cabinetry, and a cozy eat-in nook ideal for gatherings. Upstairs, all four bedrooms offer comfort and privacy, including a generous primary suite with dual sinks, a walk-in shower, private water closet, and an expansive walk-in closet. Step outside to a low-maintenance backyard ready to become your dream outdoor retreat. Residents of Hastings Farms enjoy multiple parks, ramadas with grills, a soccer field, basketball courts, and nearly 10 miles of scenic walking paths. Comfort, convenience, and community--this home truly has it all.

6. 2026-02-13
   soldstatus $452,100
7. 2026-01-29
   historical
8. 2025-12-03
   listed $499,994 Active
9. 2023-08-18
   historical $2,200
10. 2023-07-18
    listed $2,200
11. 2020-06-19
    soldstatus $305,700 Closed
12. 2020-06-19
    soldstatus $305,700
13. 2020-05-25
    status Pending
14. 2020-05-20
    price $307,500
15. 2020-05-14
    status Active
16. 2020-04-10
    status Pending
17. 2020-03-20
    listed $309,900 Active
18. 2020-03-17
    soldstatus $301,500
19. 2020-03-13
    soldstatus $302,000 Closed
20. 2020-02-28
    status Pending
21. 2020-02-17
    price $315,000
22. 2020-02-06
    price $325,000
23. 2019-12-19
    price $335,000
24. 2019-12-14
    price $335,000
25. 2019-12-07
    price $345,000
26. 2019-11-19
    listed $349,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,316 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,739 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 18.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$2,316
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,646
• − Management: −$2,646
• − HOA: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$13,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,224
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Queen Creek Unified District (4245)
• NCES district ID: 0406810
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $84,928
• Composite: 49.46/100
• National rank: #2003
• State rank: #25 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Queen Creek

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #5874

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Queen Creek, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 93,700
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 93,700
• Household income: $129,367
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1106.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.50%
• Current HPI: 329.9469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.59%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+18.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $415,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $437,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $460,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $480,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $492,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $452,100 Public Records
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $499,994 ARMLS
• 2023-08-18 Rental Removed $2,200 RENT.
• 2023-07-18 Listed for Rent $2,200 RENT.
• 2020-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $305,700 Public Records
• 2020-06-19 Sold (MLS) $305,700 ARMLS
• 2020-05-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-05-20 Price Changed $307,500 ARMLS
• 2020-05-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2020-04-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-03-20 Listed $309,900 ARMLS
• 2020-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $301,500 Public Records
• 2020-03-13 Sold (MLS) $302,000 ARMLS
• 2020-02-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-02-17 Price Changed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2020-02-06 Price Changed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2019-12-19 Price Changed $335,000 ARMLS
• 2019-12-14 Price Changed $335,000 FSBO.com
• 2019-12-07 Price Changed $345,000 FSBO.com
• 2019-11-19 Listed $349,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+19.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,316 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.