3023 French St · Erie, PA 16504

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1925 3,851 sqft lot Est $160k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tenant occupied.

Key facts

• Charming curb appeal
• Large backyard
• Full basement

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• FULL BASEMENT
• CHARMING CURB APPEAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding and frame construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Decorative fireplace (1); Full basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $125,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$160,080) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-631/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $125k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,201 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
248 Maiden Ln	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,349 (-3%)	0mo	$175,950	$130	81
242 E 32 St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,336 (-4%)	3mo	$75,201	$56	80
239 E 25th St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,404 (+1%)	1mo	$77,500	$55	78
3216 French St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-12%)	2mo	$175,000	$143	72
3729 State St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,461 (+5%)	2mo	$241,000	$165	62
3848 Eliot Rd	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+3%)	2mo	$255,000	$177	60
434 Stafford Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-5%)	1mo	$127,094	$96	60
3322 Glenwood Park Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-10%)	1mo	$140,000	$112	55
333 W 31 St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,584 (+14%)	1mo	$95,000	$60	52
3711 State St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+15%)	0mo	$282,500	$177	51
2684 Chestnut St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,572 (+13%)	1mo	$139,900	$89	50
3001 Walnut St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-10%)	3mo	$143,000	$115	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-23,554
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-24,610
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,102 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,587/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,169

Max offer price $115,704

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-17	+0% $-53	+5% $-88	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-96	+0% $-53	+5% $-9	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-21	base $-53	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	44d	1	0.24mi
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	44d	1	0.51mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.77mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	44d	1	0.87mi
3603 Maple St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	44d	1	0.98mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	44d	1	1.13mi
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	44d	1	1.36mi
1610 Poplar St Unit Downstairs Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$875	$0.73	44d	1	1.36mi
223 E 9th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,300	$0.83	44d	1	1.40mi
923 Chestnut St Unit 2 Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $125,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   remarks 514-char remark
4. 2026-06-03
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,587 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,587 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,587
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,058
• − Management: −$1,058
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$658
• After-tax cash flow: $27/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+296.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $125,000 GEBOR
• 2024-06-14 Sold (MLS) $80,000 GEBOR
• 2024-05-13 Delisted — GEBOR
• 2024-05-11 Listed $75,000 GEBOR
• 2017-09-20 Listed $49,900 GEBOR
• 2014-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $51,318 Public Records
• 1991-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1977-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $31,550 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,587 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.