3556 Canyon Rdg · Seguin, TX 78155

$200,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $120/sqft · 10% below area Est $222k · 10% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ramsey- This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 65 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $201k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1375 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $188,939 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.88%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,499
• List price: $200,999
• Delta: -9.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3556 Canyon Rdg	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,676 (0%)	1mo	$200,999	$120	99
3572 Canyon Rdg	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,676 (0%)	1mo	$189,999	$113	97
3580 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,676 (0%)	2mo	$210,999	$126	96
3553 Canyon Rdg	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+10%)	2mo	$218,999	$118	80
3568 Canyon Rdg	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+10%)	2mo	$237,999	$129	80
3561 Canyon Rdg	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+10%)	2mo	$219,999	$119	80
3557 Canyon Rdg	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+12%)	1mo	$213,999	$114	76
3560 Canyon Rdg	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	2mo	$200,999	$136	73
3573 Canyon Rdg	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+12%)	3mo	$223,999	$119	73
736 Canyon Run	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+10%)	2mo	$205,999	$111	72
3581 Sky Pl	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-12%)	1mo	$187,999	$127	72
3548 Canyon Rdg	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,922 (+15%)	1mo	$221,999	$116	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,741
• Equity at exit: $29,970

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,980
• Equity at exit: $17,379

Cash invested: $56,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1375
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,054
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$251 /mo · $3,015/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,811

Max offer price $200,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $158	+0% $88	+5% $19	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $12	+0% $88	+5% $164	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $189	-0.5pp $139	base $88	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,250
• Closing costs: $6,030
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3572 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$1,700	$1.01	2d	1	0.02mi
3209 Ridge Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,700	$1.25	44d	1	0.40mi
1015 Reiley Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,495	$1.52	2d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   The Ramsey- This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $200,999 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   The Ramsey- This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-01
   price $224,999 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   The Ramsey- This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-03-31
   price $217,999 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   The Ramsey- This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-03-25
   price $219,999 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   The Ramsey- This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-03-24
   price $218,999 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   The Ramsey- This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-03-20
   price $223,999 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   The Ramsey- This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-03-18
   price $222,999 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   The Ramsey- This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

9. 2026-03-12
   listed $221,999 New 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   The Ramsey- This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,259
• − Property taxes: −$3,015
• − Insurance: −$1,005
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,847
• Taxable loss: −$2,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$539
• After-tax cash flow: $1,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story home is move-in ready with modern design and excellent condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior trim — Freshens up the home's appearance
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Freshens up the home's appearance ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $200,999 LERA
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $224,999 LERA
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $217,999 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $219,999 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $218,999 LERA
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $223,999 LERA
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $222,999 LERA
• 2026-03-12 Listed $221,999 LERA