3916 44th Ave · Lemon Hill, CA 95824

$399,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1989 5,388 sqft lot Est $487k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

* * Investor Special Duplex Opportunity! * * Built in 1989 and loaded with upside potential, this Sacramento duplex is the perfect addition to your investment portfolio. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, you'll appreciate the strong cash-flow potential and value-add opportunity this property offers. Both units provide functional floor plans with room for cosmetic improvements that can help maximize rents and long-term appreciation. Conveniently located with easy access to major commuter routes, public transportation, shopping, dining, parks, and schools, making it an attractive option for tenants seeking affordability and convenience. Nearby schools include Paci

Key facts

• 5,388 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Off-street parking; Total 2 parking spaces (2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public water (water district); Public sewer; Cable available; No irrigation
• Home design: Duplex (residential income); Single-story; Built in 1989
• Construction: House(s) style duplex
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range/oven; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Each unit has one full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace; Wall-mounted cooling units
• Interior features: Disposal; Free-standing electric oven; Wall furnace heating in units; Wall unit cooling
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups in each unit; Laundry area in each unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($213/yr) — positive. Per door: $9/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Lemon Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,302 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leonardo Da Vinci (797 students, 35% FRL); Fern Bacon Middle (671 students, 92% FRL); C. K. Mcclatchy High (2,427 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,113/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1671% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $399k implies a 514% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $311,300 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $486,720
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5904 40th St	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	11mo	$519,000	$360	59
3707 - 3709 43rd Ave	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,518 (+12%)	23mo	$500,000	$329	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-52,526
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $4,214
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95824

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 21.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,113 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,194/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,091

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $244	-5% $131	+0% $18	+5% $-95	+10% $-208
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-105	+0% $18	+5% $141	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $119	base $18	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-191

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,112
Total (2 units)			$3,113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5891 28th St Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,195	$1.98	22d	1	0.89mi
5936 Clover Manor Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,400	$1.78	45d	1	0.95mi
5905 Clover Manor Way Unit 5907 CLOVER Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	5d	1	1.00mi
4913 Sky Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	45d	1	1.02mi
2620 Fernandez Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1405	$2,495	$1.78	25d	1	1.04mi
6519 Prentiss Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1029	$2,300	$2.24	14d	1	1.26mi
5400 53rd Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	1274	$2,450	$1.92	25d	1	1.28mi
2360 53rd Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1474	$2,495	$1.69	45d	1	1.30mi
4930 Bonniemae Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1289	$2,500	$1.94	45d	1	1.37mi
3480 22nd Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1549	$2,500	$1.61	19d	1	1.39mi
5834 55th St Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1027	$2,100	$2.04	18d	1	1.40mi
5500 38th Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	45d	1	1.43mi
6739 Ferrier Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1106	$2,325	$2.10	25d	1	1.44mi
3401 21st Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	9d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $399,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,032 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$838/yr (+$70/mo · 38.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$2,194
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,988
• − Management: −$2,988
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$6,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,624
• After-tax cash flow: $1,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lemon Hill

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1302
• US rank: #26608

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lemon Hill, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,083
• Household income: $56,477
• Rent vs Own: 55.5% rent · 44.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1671.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% Asian 29% White 13% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 12% Vietnamese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -341.41%
• Current HPI: 409.6203
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.44%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+195.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2012-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $253,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $192,000 Public Records
• 1990-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 1983-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,194 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.