401 W 4th · Fordyce, AR 71742

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,487 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1979 0.39 ac lot $54/sqft · at area comps Est $80k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located at 401 W4th Street in the heart of Fordyce. This well maintained property offers 1,487 sq ft of comfortable living space, featuring a spacious living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home includes durable vinyl siding for low maintenance and a covered carport with a convenient two door storage room, providing plenty of extra space for tools or equipment. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard, ideal for gatherings, pets, or future improvements.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Large backyard
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• COVERED CARPORT
• TWO DOOR STORAGE ROOM
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#313 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Fordyce School District (town): math 19% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #203 of 238 in AR (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.39%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,233
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -0.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Triple R Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-6%)	8mo	$79,500	$57	76
1107 Abernathy	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,604 (+8%)	7mo	$120,000	$75	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $41,216
• Equity at exit: $41,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $103,575
• Equity at exit: $68,041

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71742

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $645/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $641

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $463	-5% $441	+0% $418	+5% $395	+10% $373
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $372	+0% $418	+5% $464	+10% $510
Rate	-1.0pp $458	-0.5pp $438	base $418	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $376

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $80,000 New Listing 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located at 401 W4th Street in the heart of Fordyce. This well maintained property offers 1,487 sq ft of comfortable living space, featuring a spacious living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The home includes durable vinyl siding for low maintenance and a covered carport with a convenient two door storage room, providing plenty of extra space for tools or equipment. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard, ideal for gatherings, pets, or future improvements.

18. 2010-06-23
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$645
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,124
• − Management: −$1,124
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,944
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$946
• After-tax cash flow: $4,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fordyce School District
• NCES district ID: 0506210
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $32,339
• Composite: 18.68/100
• National rank: #8884
• State rank: #203 of 238 in AR

Livability — Fordyce

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #20808

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fordyce, AR
• Population (ZIP): 4,424

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,895 people
• By 2030: 6,470 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 5,655 · -18.0%
• By 2050: 5,012 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 4,179 · -39.4%
• By 2100: 3,906 · -43.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.3% · R 63.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+23.0 2016: R+12.5 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 98.2933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+48.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $80,000 CARMLS
• 2010-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $645 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.