Is 1108 Mary Ashby Way in Hopewell, NJ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.0% cap rate and $-810/mo modeled cash flow at a $430,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1108 Mary Ashby Way?

The modeled cap rate is 4.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,745/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 31.72

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +9.0/15.0
Cash flow +6.1/30.0
Schools +5.1/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.8/5.0
Rent growth +1.9/5.0
1% rule +1.4/10.0
DSCR +0.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$430,990

1108 Mary Ashby Way · Hopewell, NJ 08534

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · Townhouse · 124 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $365/sqft · at area comps Est $446k · at est.

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level condominium features an open-concept floorplan that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space. A nearby balcony offers seamless outdoor entertainment leisure. A secondary bedrooms at the front of the home is steps from a full-sized bathroom, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked away at the back of the home, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

Full-sized bathroom
Balcony
Walk-in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $431k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-810 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (27.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (36.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $274k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.6% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 76/100 on livability (#125 in NJ, #3,403 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Bear Tavern Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #422 of 1,303 statewide, top 35%, 459 students, 3% FRL); Timberlane Middle School (math 40% / reading 69%, grade B-, #68 of 431 statewide, top 16%, 780 students, 3% FRL); Hopewell Valley Central High School (math 44% / reading 71%, grade C, #67 of 399 statewide, top 17%, 1,079 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $274,470 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.64% ✗
Cap rate: 4.04%
Cash-on-cash: -8.06%
DSCR: 0.64
GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $445,890
List price: $430,990
Delta: -3.34%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2207 Prince Hall Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-2%)	4mo	$379,990	$329	89
2106 Prince Hall Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,156 (-2%)	4mo	$379,750	$329	89
2303 Prince Hall Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+7%)	2mo	$428,790	$338	82
2202 Prince Hall Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+7%)	5mo	$422,150	$333	80
2101 Prince Hall Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,268 (+7%)	5mo	$441,790	$348	80
2203 Prince Hall Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,267 (+7%)	5mo	$395,000	$312	80
176 Leona Stewart Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+12%)	2mo	$438,000	$331	74
168 Leona Stewart Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+12%)	2mo	$439,999	$333	74
152 Leona Stewart	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,306 (+10%)	6mo	$449,990	$345	73
158 Leona Stewart Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+12%)	4mo	$469,990	$355	72
132 Leona Stewart Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+12%)	6mo	$439,990	$333	69
156 Leona Stewart	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+12%)	6mo	$469,990	$355	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -33.8%
Equity multiple: -0.07×
Total profit: $-129,441
Equity at exit: $64,262

10-year hold

IRR: -64.4%
Equity multiple: -0.74×
Total profit: $-210,075
Equity at exit: $37,264

Cash invested: $120,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 10 active · 8 under contract
Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $445,490 ($355/sqft)
Median days on market: 373 d
This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +6.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08534

Home prices YoY: -32.9%
Rents YoY: -2.2%
Active inventory: 198
Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,745 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,260
Tax est. 1.5%: −$539 /mo · $6,465/yr
Insurance: −$180
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
Net cashflow: $-810

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,770

Max offer price $313,758

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-512	-5% $-661	+0% $-810	+5% $-959	+10% $-1,108
Rent	-10% $-1,027	-5% $-919	+0% $-810	+5% $-702	+10% $-593
Rate	-1.0pp $-593	-0.5pp $-701	base $-810	+0.5pp $-922	+1.0pp $-1,035

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $107,748
Closing costs: $12,930
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5202 Mary Ashby Way Pennington, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,700	$2.16	117d	1	0.12mi
180 Leona Stewart Ln Hopewell Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1323	$3,000	$2.27	6d	1	0.12mi
161 Leona Stewart Ln Pennington, NJ	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,950	$2.27	3d	1	0.15mi
25 Diverty Rd Pennington, NJ	2.0	1.0	1370	$2,400	$1.75	117d	1	0.22mi
39 Diverty Rd Pennington, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$2,250	$3.00	6d	1	0.23mi
725 Denow Rd Pennington, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	747	$1,635	$2.19	0d	1	0.72mi
1 Samuel Peterson Dr Ewing Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$3,915	$3.53	0d	18	1.27mi
201 Lewis Fisher Dr Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1347	$2,800	$2.08	109d	1	1.34mi
233 Lewis Fisher Dr Unit St Ewing Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1347	$2,950	$2.19	6d	1	1.40mi
2203 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1267	$3,000	$2.37	109d	1	1.47mi
2207 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,800	$2.21	109d	1	1.47mi
2201 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,700	$2.28	0d	1	1.48mi
2301 Jacob Francis Way Titusville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,700	$2.28	0d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Not in a federal flood zone
Financial info: Lease not considered
HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $379HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, lawn maintenance, and snow removalCommunity amenities include common grounds and a dog parkPets allowed (cats and dogs allowed, number limit applies)

Exterior

Parking: On-street parking
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Condominium unit (Unit/Flat)Garden-style building (1–4 floors)Construction not completedIrrigation water rights
Construction: Combination and vinyl siding exteriorSlab foundationYear built estimated
Exterior features: BalconyAbove-grade outdoor structures

Interior

Kitchen: Built-in microwaveOven/Range - GasDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorStainless steel appliancesInstant hot water
Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (including two full on main level)
Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning (natural gas)
Interior features: Level entry to main floorSwing-in doorsNo basementExcellent conditionAbove-grade living space estimated at 1,182 finished
Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedWasher/dryer hook-up in unitTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $430,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $430,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $430,990 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $430,990 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $430,990 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $430,990 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $430,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $430,990 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $430,990 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $430,990 Active 114 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $430,990 Active 113 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $430,990 Active 112 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on marketlisting id $430,990 Active 111 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $440,990 Active 26 DOM
2026-09-04

pricedays on market $440,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $450,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $450,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $450,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $450,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $450,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $450,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $450,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $450,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $450,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $450,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $450,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $450,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $450,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $450,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $450,990 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $450,990 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $450,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $450,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $450,990 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $450,990 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-10

days on marketlisting id $450,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $450,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $450,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $450,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-07

days on marketlisting id $450,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $450,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $450,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $450,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-03

pricedays on market $450,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $448,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $448,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $448,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $448,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $448,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $448,990 Active 16 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $32,936
− Mortgage interest: −$24,142
− Property taxes: −$6,465
− Insurance: −$2,155
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,635
− Management: −$2,635
− Depreciation: −$12,538
Taxable loss: −$17,633

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,232
After-tax cash flow: $-5,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level condominium is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Reorganizing and decluttering interior spaces — Creates a more inviting and functional living space ↑
Both Upgrading window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bear Tavern Elementary School F NJ #422/1,303 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Timberlane Middle School B- NJ #68/431 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Hopewell Valley Central High School C NJ #67/399 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Hopewell Valley Regional School District
NCES district ID: 3407530
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -25.00%
Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
Median HH income: $126,131
Composite: 52.03/100
National rank: #1636
State rank: #72 of 472 in NJ

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Hopewell

Score: 76/100
State rank: #125
US rank: #3403

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Mercer County · 381,395 people
Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
Population (ZIP): 13,272
Household income: $175,573
Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 381,395 people
By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -115.16%
Current HPI: 234.5759
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.25%
Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Consumer Goods	3	$31B
#281 Kenvue Skillman $15.4B #289 Campbell Soup Camden $9.6B #320 Church & Dwight Ewing $6.1B
Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
#48 Johnson & Johnson New Brunswick $88.8B #65 Merck Rahway $64.2B
Technology	2	$21B
#216 Automatic Data Processing Roseland $19.8B #442 Commvault Systems Tinton Falls $0.9B
Insurance	2	$20B
#411 Arch Capital Group Pembroke $15.2B #459 Selective Insurance Group Branchville $4.9B
Healthcare	2	$19B
#310 Quest Diagnostics Secaucus $9.8B #400 Zoetis Parsippany $9.1B
Financial Services	1	$70B
#62 Prudential Financial Newark $70.4B

Price history

+4.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

2026-08-10 Listed $450,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-08-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
2026-08-01 Price Changed $450,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-08-01 Price Changed $450,990 Zillow
2026-07-06 Listed $448,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-07-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
2026-06-02 Price Changed $448,990 Zillow
2026-06-02 Listed $448,990 BRIGHT MLS
2026-05-23 Listed $429,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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