19391 SE 21st Pl · Morriston, FL 32668

$89,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1987

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Location!! Enjoy the piece and quite of the beautiful immaculate 3/2 DW with Den(possible 4th bedroom) Open & Bright Large kitchen, laundry room, split bedroom plan, back deck, lg. shed, new A/C, new tile, paint and more. Easy access to Ocala or Gainesville.

Key facts

• Paved road
• Existing well
• 1 acre property

Tags

• 1 ACRE PROPERTY
• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• EXISTING WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• DETACHED STORAGE BUILDING
• PAVED ROAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 1.3% in Morriston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#902 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nature Coast Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #399 of 571 statewide, top 71%, 90 students, 82% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 62% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $89k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.68%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $99,683
• Equity at exit: $80,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.17×
• Total profit: $253,434
• Equity at exit: $172,907

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32668

• Home prices YoY: 11.5%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,854 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,889/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $837

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $854	-5% $828	+0% $803	+5% $778	+10% $753
Rent	-10% $657	-5% $730	+0% $803	+5% $876	+10% $950
Rate	-1.0pp $848	-0.5pp $826	base $803	+0.5pp $780	+1.0pp $757

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-03-09
    listed $89,000 Active
19. 2015-08-26
    soldstatus $57,900
20. 2015-08-11
    soldstatus $57,900 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Great location!! Enjoy the piece and quite of the beautiful immaculate 3/2 DW with Den (possible 4th bedroom), Open and Bright, lg kitchen, laundry room, split bedroom, back deck, lg shed, new a/c, new tile/paint and more. Easy access to Ocala or Gainesville.

21. 2015-08-11
    soldstatus $57,900 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Great location!! Enjoy the piece and quite of the beautiful immaculate 3/2 DW with Den (possible 4th bedroom), Open and Bright, lg kitchen, laundry room, split bedroom, back deck, lg shed, new a/c, new tile/paint and more. Easy access to Ocala or Gainesville.

22. 2015-06-03
    listed $59,900 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Great location!! Enjoy the piece and quite of the beautiful immaculate 3/2 DW with Den (possible 4th bedroom), Open and Bright, lg kitchen, laundry room, split bedroom, back deck, lg shed, new a/c, new tile/paint and more. Easy access to Ocala or Gainesville.

23. 2015-06-03
    listed $59,900 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    Great location!! Enjoy the piece and quite of the beautiful immaculate 3/2 DW with Den (possible 4th bedroom), Open and Bright, lg kitchen, laundry room, split bedroom, back deck, lg shed, new a/c, new tile/paint and more. Easy access to Ocala or Gainesville.

24. 2004-11-22
    soldstatus $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,889
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,779
• − Management: −$1,779
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $8,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,106
• After-tax cash flow: $7,532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Levy
• NCES district ID: 1201140
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,254
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4673
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Morriston

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #902
• US rank: #26787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,326

Population outlook (Levy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,536 people
• By 2030: 34,498 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 30,294 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 26,368 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 19,003 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 13,169 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Levy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.6% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.56%
• Current HPI: 432.1581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+48.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $89,000 Fizber.com
• 2015-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records
• 2015-08-11 Sold (MLS) $57,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-11 Sold (MLS) $57,900 RACC
• 2015-06-03 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-03 Listed $59,900 RACC
• 2004-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,889 · +17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.