ARIA Plan · Punta Gorda, FL 33950

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily · 243 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Aria floorplan at Seagrass is a 1,672 square foot home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a two-car garage. It boasts many contemporary features and an open-concept design to enhance the modern feel of this home. The kitchen includes a large island perfect for bar-style eating or entertaining, a pantry, and plenty of cabinets and counter space. The well-appointed kitchen comes with stainless steel appliance, electric range, and microwave hood. The dining room and living room both overlook the covered lanai, which is a great area for relaxing and dining al fresco. The large primary bedroom, located at the back of the home for privacy, can comfortably fit a king-size bed and includes an en

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• En suite bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCE
• COVERED LANAI
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $289,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan located at 9695 Turtle Grass Cir, Punta Gorda FL 33950
• Construction: New construction (Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: ARIA; Active new construction plan

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $295,944.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-755/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Punta Gorda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#225 in FL, #3,567 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 999 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $250,917 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,944
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9534 Turtle Grass Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,672 (0%)	16mo	$328,999	$197	86
9584 Turtle Grass Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,672 (0%)	14mo	$322,999	$193	86
9531 Turtle Grass Cir	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+9%)	9mo	$299,999	$164	71
9531 Sunbeam Cir	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,503 (-10%)	6mo	$265,999	$177	56
9451 Sunbeam Cir	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,503 (-10%)	6mo	$250,000	$166	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-59,281
• Equity at exit: $44,126

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-85,048
• Equity at exit: $25,588

Cash invested: $82,864 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33950

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 999
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,509 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,439/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,589

Max offer price $286,834

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $39	+0% $-63	+5% $-165	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-261	-5% $-162	+0% $-63	+5% $36	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $12	base $-63	+0.5pp $-140	+1.0pp $-218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,986
• Closing costs: $8,878
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9489 Turtle Grass Cir Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	14d	1	0.11mi
26120 Jones Loop Rd Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1105	$2,275	$2.06	14d	27	0.45mi
9975 Bishop Creek Way Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1899	$2,300	$1.21	21d	1	0.73mi
3845 Albacete Cir #50 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1451	$2,200	$1.52	21d	1	0.74mi
3800 Tripoli Blvd #35 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1451	$4,200	$2.89	21d	1	0.80mi
9984 Spring Gulch Ln Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,849	$1.23	21d	1	0.80mi
9996 Spring Gulch Ln Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.0	1950	$1,895	$0.97	21d	1	0.84mi
3701 Albacete Cir #98 Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1451	$3,250	$2.24	21d	1	1.01mi
26162 Stillwater Cir Punta Gorda, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$2,000	$1.58	21d	1	1.03mi
3500 Mondovi Ct #811 Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$3,200	$2.01	21d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,990 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,990 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 224 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,577
• − Property taxes: −$4,439
• − Insurance: −$1,480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,409
• − Management: −$2,409
• − Depreciation: −$8,609
• Taxable loss: −$5,813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,395
• After-tax cash flow: $640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte
• NCES district ID: 1200240
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,864
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2586
• State rank: #22 of 73 in FL

Livability — Punta Gorda

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #3567

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Punta Gorda, FL
• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• City population: 68,831
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,955
• Household income: $76,369
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,646 people
• By 2030: 210,507 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 230,857 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 247,148 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 281,777 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 293,609 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.7% · R 66.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.73%
• Current HPI: 261.6573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.06%
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B