4838 Hotlum Dr · McCloud, CA 96057

$199,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 1993 2.40 ac lot Est $232k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the serene Mount Shasta forest, this charming and functional cabin was originally built as a summer getaway but is fully equipped for year-round living. Featuring an inviting open-concept layout, the home includes two comfortable bedrooms and a full bathroom, Plus an en-suite half bath off one of the bedrooms. Warm up by the wood-burning stove on crisp mountain evenings, or enjoy the natural air conditioning of brisk summer nights. Upstairs, an added entertainment room provides extra space for relaxing, gaming, or hosting guests. Set in the lower section of the Shasta Forest Subdivision, the property offers the rare benefit of paved access and backs directly onto expansive nation

Key facts

• Wood-burning stove
• Paved access
• Entertainment room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WOOD-BURNING STOVE
• ENTERTAINMENT ROOM
• PAVED ACCESS
• REMOTE-START HONDA GENERATOR
• DIVERSE CANOPY OF OAKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $771 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#636 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Siskiyou Union High (rural): math 25% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #763 of 1,400 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.60%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4210 Hotlum Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	19mo	$228,000	$204	45
4715 Widow Springs Rd	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-7%)	9mo	$215,000	$215	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $157,407
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.62×
• Total profit: $424,800
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96057

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $952/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,526

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-03-20
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-27
    listed $199,000 Active
19. 2025-09-15
    price $199,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $952 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$560/yr (+$47/mo · 58.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$952
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $6,338
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $7,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siskiyou Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636940
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,293
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9605
• State rank: #763 of 1400 in CA

Livability — McCloud

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #636
• US rank: #20040

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,076

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Russian 6% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 147.64%
• Current HPI: 490.68
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — SMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $199,000 SMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $199,000 SMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $952 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.