737 Carnation Dr · Los Fresnos, TX 78566

$249,995

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,651 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2001 7,228 sqft lot $151/sqft · 8% below area Est $270k · 8% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious two-story home located on a quiet cul-de-sac in the desirable Valle Alto East subdivision, offering 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths with a functional layout designed for comfort and flexibility. The primary suite is located upstairs and features a walk-in closet, separate shower, and relaxing jetted tub, while a versatile bonus room downstairs is ideal for a home office, playroom, or additional living space. The home includes a bright living and dining area, along with conveying appliances such as an electric range and refrigerator. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard highlighted by a private in-ground swimming pool, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Additional features include a unique drive-through two-car garage with front and rear access, central heating and cooling, and a combination of tile and carpet flooring. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and dining. Note: All Decor and furniture in this listing is virtually staged.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Walk in closet
• Jetted tub

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• QUIET CUL DE SAC
• VALLE ALTO EAST SUBDIVISION
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• JETTED TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-357 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#327 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lopez-Riggins El (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 514 students, 88% FRL); Los Cuates Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 809 students, 78% FRL); Los Fresnos H S (math 41% / reading 55%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,272 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 43% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,569 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.12%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,274
• List price: $249,995
• Delta: -7.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
925 Daisy Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (+2%)	24mo	$259,000	$154	64
403 Valle Alto Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,870 (+13%)	12mo	$299,000	$160	46
409 W 6th St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (+10%)	14mo	$179,900	$99	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $46,237
• Equity at exit: $153,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $154,817
• Equity at exit: $275,818

Cash invested: $69,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78566

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,233/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,238

Max offer price $186,884

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-216	-5% $-287	+0% $-357	+5% $-428	+10% $-499
Rent	-10% $-498	-5% $-428	+0% $-357	+5% $-287	+10% $-216
Rate	-1.0pp $-231	-0.5pp $-294	base $-357	+0.5pp $-422	+1.0pp $-488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,499
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32936 Samuel Rd Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	3.0	2156	$2,000	$0.93	45d	1	0.64mi
33267 Harvey Escalante Rd Unit 2 Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	23d	1	0.72mi
127 Olive St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1835	$1,650	$0.90	23d	1	0.86mi
121 Mimosa St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1790	$1,750	$0.98	15d	1	0.89mi
121 Mimosa St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1790	$1,650	$0.92	45d	1	0.89mi
123 Mimosa St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1835	$1,650	$0.90	15d	1	0.89mi
110 Olive St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1975	$1,700	$0.86	45d	1	0.92mi
518 Oriole Dr Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	2206	$2,900	$1.31	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-25
   price $249,995 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (971 chars)

   Spacious two-story home located on a quiet cul-de-sac in the desirable Valle Alto East subdivision, offering 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths with a functional layout designed for comfort and flexibility. The primary suite is located upstairs and features a walk-in closet, separate shower, and relaxing jetted tub, while a versatile bonus room downstairs is ideal for a home office, playroom, or additional living space. The home includes a bright living and dining area, along with conveying appliances such as an electric range and refrigerator. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard highlighted by a private in-ground swimming pool, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Additional features include a unique drive-through two-car garage with front and rear access, central heating and cooling, and a combination of tile and carpet flooring. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and dining. Note: All Decor and furniture in this listing is virtually staged.

2. 2026-03-31
   listed $254,995 Active 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (971 chars)

   Spacious two-story home located on a quiet cul-de-sac in the desirable Valle Alto East subdivision, offering 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths with a functional layout designed for comfort and flexibility. The primary suite is located upstairs and features a walk-in closet, separate shower, and relaxing jetted tub, while a versatile bonus room downstairs is ideal for a home office, playroom, or additional living space. The home includes a bright living and dining area, along with conveying appliances such as an electric range and refrigerator. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard highlighted by a private in-ground swimming pool, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Additional features include a unique drive-through two-car garage with front and rear access, central heating and cooling, and a combination of tile and carpet flooring. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, and dining. Note: All Decor and furniture in this listing is virtually staged.

3. 2025-10-03
   price $255,000
4. 2025-10-03
   price $255,000
5. 2025-08-20
   price $270,000
6. 2025-08-20
   price $270,000
7. 2025-05-12
   price $292,000
8. 2025-05-12
   price $292,000
9. 2025-04-15
   listed $299,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,233 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$341/yr (+$28/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$4,233
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,760
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,102
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Fresnos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828290
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,586
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5601
• State rank: #444 of 826 in TX

Livability — Los Fresnos

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #7193

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Fresnos, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,927

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 45% White 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Spanish 67%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Current HPI: 218.1236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $249,995 RGVMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $254,995 RGVMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $255,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $255,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $270,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $270,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $292,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $292,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-04-15 Listed $299,999 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,233 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.