16-1998 Tiki Rd · Tiki Gardens, HI 96778

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily · 223 Days on market

Built 2006 8,100 sqft lot $217/sqft · 25% below area Est $352k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tiki Gardens Home — 16-1998 Tiki Road — $265,000 on terms A wonderful opportunity to own a charming home in the peaceful Tiki Gardens subdivision! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on an 8,100 sq. ft. lot and offers a great blend of affordability and potential. Built in 2006, the home features 1,224 sq. ft. of living space with a functional layout and double-wall construction. This property is being offered at $265,000 with $50,000 down. Details: • 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms • 1,224 sq. ft. living area • Built in 2006 • Lot size: 8,100 sq. ft. (approx. 0.185 acres) • Parcel #: 3-1-6-040-078 • Located in Tiki Gardens, a quiet residential neighborhood Take advantage of this opportunity to own a home on the Big Island and make it your own! All comments, data is provided by seller or seller's representatives. Buyer to confirm all & hold all parties harmless from any discrepancy data in the mls and advertising. Limited Service–Data Entry Addendum signed by seller/s must be signed by buyer/s with Purchase Contract.

Key facts

• 8,100 sq ft lot
• Built 2006
• Listed 223 days

Tags

• TIKI GARDENS SUBDIVISION
• DOUBLE-WALL CONSTRUCTION
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 387 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $233,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.32%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,898
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -24.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16-1995 Silversword Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-2%)	8mo	$355,000	$294	78
16-2046 Tiki Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-1%)	12mo	$363,000	$300	78
16-1980 Sandalwood Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-3%)	5mo	$352,000	$296	74
16-423 Aina Pua St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,315 (+7%)	9mo	$310,000	$236	71
16-2039 Uilani Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,200 (-2%)	6mo	$415,000	$346	70
16-2166 Aloha Dr	0.15mi	3/3.0	1,246 (+2%)	21mo	$385,000	$309	68
16-2090 Mauna Kea Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,185 (-3%)	0mo	$410,000	$346	65
16-2003 Silversword Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-14%)	6mo	$335,000	$317	60
16-2062 Silveroak Dr	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,246 (+2%)	8mo	$410,000	$329	58
16-2075 Lilikoi Dr	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,246 (+2%)	10mo	$385,000	$309	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-33,755
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-17,459
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96778

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16-1840 34th Ave Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	17d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 209 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 205 DOM
15. 2025-11-07
    listed $265,000 Active 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    Tiki Gardens Home — 16-1998 Tiki Road — $265,000 on terms A wonderful opportunity to own a charming home in the peaceful Tiki Gardens subdivision! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on an 8,100 sq. ft. lot and offers a great blend of affordability and potential. Built in 2006, the home features 1,224 sq. ft. of living space with a functional layout and double-wall construction. This property is being offered at $265,000 with $50,000 down. Details: • 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms • 1,224 sq. ft. living area • Built in 2006 • Lot size: 8,100 sq. ft. (approx. 0.185 acres) • Parcel #: 3-1-6-040-078 • Located in Tiki Gardens, a quiet residential neighborhood Take advantage of this opportunity to own a home on the Big Island and make it your own! All comments, data is provided by seller or seller's representatives. Buyer to confirm all & hold all parties harmless from any discrepancy data in the mls and advertising. Limited Service–Data Entry Addendum signed by seller/s must be signed by buyer/s with Purchase Contract.

16. 2025-11-07
    listed $265,000 Active 1079-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    Tiki Gardens Home — 16-1998 Tiki Road — $265,000 on terms A wonderful opportunity to own a charming home in the peaceful Tiki Gardens subdivision! This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home sits on an 8,100 sq. ft. lot and offers a great blend of affordability and potential. Built in 2006, the home features 1,224 sq. ft. of living space with a functional layout and double-wall construction. This property is being offered at $265,000 with $50,000 down. Details: • 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms • 1,224 sq. ft. living area • Built in 2006 • Lot size: 8,100 sq. ft. (approx. 0.185 acres) • Parcel #: 3-1-6-040-078 • Located in Tiki Gardens, a quiet residential neighborhood Take advantage of this opportunity to own a home on the Big Island and make it your own! All comments, data is provided by seller or seller's representatives. Buyer to confirm all & hold all parties harmless from any discrepancy data in the mls and advertising. Limited Service–Data Entry Addendum signed by seller/s must be signed by buyer/s with Purchase Contract.

17. 2007-04-30
    listed $245,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$2,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $2,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Tiki Gardens

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tiki Gardens, HI
• Population (ZIP): 14,225

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.82)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Two or more races 30% Hispanic / Latino 15% Pacific Islander 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.52%
• Current HPI: 173.8168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+8.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-07 Listed $265,000 HI Information Service
• 2025-11-07 Listed $265,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2007-04-30 Listed $245,000 HI Information Service