5583 Meadow Creek Pl · Midway, FL 32563

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2003 4,791 sqft lot Est $275k · 9% over $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice ONE OWNER home in a great subdivision in Gulf Breeze. NEW ROOF. Top rated schools, Conveniently located close to shopping, schools, hospitals and of course, THE BEACHES. This 3 bedroom and 2 full bathroom home is in good condition but you can make it your own with a few minor cosmetic changes / updates. Sellers had a walk in tub installed in the master bathroom at great expense. Nice open floorpan makes for a light and bright environment. Retractable awnings on the windows will help keep utility bills low. Washer & Dryer will convey with the home. The kitchen refrigerator will be removed prior to closing.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with an annual fee of $230

Exterior

• Parking: Total 2 parking spaces; Attached 1-car garage; 1 covered parking space; Garage parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers; County-maintained road access
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Homestead eligible; Frame construction
• Construction: Built on slab foundation; Shingle roof; Frame construction; One level
• Exterior features: Irrigation well and well as irrigation source; Lawn pump; Sprinkler system; Covered patio/porch; Back yard fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on first floor (approx. 11.7' x 12.7'); Two additional bedrooms on first floor (each approx. 9.4' x 11.5' and 9.4' x 11.4')
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on first floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Living/dining combo; Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.1% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,389 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,156
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5566 Meadow Creek Pl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-1%)	1mo	$280,000	$223	96
1980 Crosscreek Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+1%)	1mo	$300,000	$234	89
2026 Church St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,271 (+0%)	1mo	$255,000	$201	85
5594 Fawn Ridge Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+10%)	0mo	$300,000	$214	79
5648 United Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-4%)	2mo	$261,000	$214	76
1982 Pentagon St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-5%)	6mo	$252,000	$209	76
5600 Brentwater Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	1mo	$244,900	$204	76
2078 Shadow Lake Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+6%)	1mo	$330,000	$245	74
1989 Justice Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-10%)	4mo	$211,000	$184	73
5813 Congress Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+10%)	0mo	$336,000	$241	61
5375 Pecos Pass	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-9%)	1mo	$260,000	$226	55
5407 Maverick Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+14%)	1mo	$315,000	$217	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-50,610
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-35,957
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32563

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,294 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,309/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,410

Max offer price $282,785

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $-7	+0% $-92	+5% $-176	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-273	-5% $-182	+0% $-92	+5% $-1	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $-16	base $-92	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1889 Natures Way Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1699	$2,850	$1.68	24d	1	0.19mi
1712 Bay Pine Cir Gulf Breeze, FL	4.0	2.0	1783	$2,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.45mi
5723 Sandy Walk St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,890	$1.23	14d	1	0.58mi
5723 Sandy Walk St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,890	$1.23	24d	1	0.58mi
5359 Maverick Ln Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,200	$1.63	14d	1	0.59mi
5673 Stellarjay St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,950	$1.27	21d	1	0.63mi
1651 Ponderosa Dr Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,450	$1.53	14d	1	0.81mi
1651 Ponderosa Dr Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,450	$1.53	21d	1	0.81mi
1861 Teal Cir Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,950	$1.27	14d	5	0.90mi
1643 Amarillo Trl Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,995	$1.36	24d	1	1.03mi
1786 Kell Rd Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1342	$1,750	$1.30	14d	1	1.17mi
5410 Spruce St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,000	$1.21	24d	1	1.26mi
5410 Spruce St Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,000	$1.21	14d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    listed $299,000 Active
17. 2022-08-31
    soldstatus $270,000
18. 2022-08-26
    status Pending 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Nice ONE OWNER home in a great subdivision in Gulf Breeze. NEW ROOF. Top rated schools, Conveniently located close to shopping, schools, hospitals and of course, THE BEACHES. This 3 bedroom and 2 full bathroom home is in good condition but you can make it your own with a few minor cosmetic changes / updates. Sellers had a walk in tub installed in the master bathroom at great expense. Nice open floorpan makes for a light and bright environment. Retractable awnings on the windows will help keep utility bills low. Washer & Dryer will convey with the home. The kitchen refrigerator will be removed prior to closing.

19. 2022-08-26
    soldstatus $270,000 Sold 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Nice ONE OWNER home in a great subdivision in Gulf Breeze. NEW ROOF. Top rated schools, Conveniently located close to shopping, schools, hospitals and of course, THE BEACHES. This 3 bedroom and 2 full bathroom home is in good condition but you can make it your own with a few minor cosmetic changes / updates. Sellers had a walk in tub installed in the master bathroom at great expense. Nice open floorpan makes for a light and bright environment. Retractable awnings on the windows will help keep utility bills low. Washer & Dryer will convey with the home. The kitchen refrigerator will be removed prior to closing.

20. 2022-07-14
    historical Contingent 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Nice ONE OWNER home in a great subdivision in Gulf Breeze. NEW ROOF. Top rated schools, Conveniently located close to shopping, schools, hospitals and of course, THE BEACHES. This 3 bedroom and 2 full bathroom home is in good condition but you can make it your own with a few minor cosmetic changes / updates. Sellers had a walk in tub installed in the master bathroom at great expense. Nice open floorpan makes for a light and bright environment. Retractable awnings on the windows will help keep utility bills low. Washer & Dryer will convey with the home. The kitchen refrigerator will be removed prior to closing.

21. 2022-06-13
    listed $275,000 Active 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    Nice ONE OWNER home in a great subdivision in Gulf Breeze. NEW ROOF. Top rated schools, Conveniently located close to shopping, schools, hospitals and of course, THE BEACHES. This 3 bedroom and 2 full bathroom home is in good condition but you can make it your own with a few minor cosmetic changes / updates. Sellers had a walk in tub installed in the master bathroom at great expense. Nice open floorpan makes for a light and bright environment. Retractable awnings on the windows will help keep utility bills low. Washer & Dryer will convey with the home. The kitchen refrigerator will be removed prior to closing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,309 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$173/yr (+$14/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,309
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,202
• − Management: −$2,202
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$6,356
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,525
• After-tax cash flow: $424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,364
• Household income: $100,396
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.78%
• Current HPI: 278.9852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+8.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $299,000 PARMLS
• 2022-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-26 Pending — PARMLS
• 2022-08-26 Sold (MLS) $270,000 PARMLS
• 2022-07-14 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2022-06-13 Listed $275,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,309 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.