7909 Hoffman St · Houston, TX 77016

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,222 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1945 7,440 sqft lot Est $192k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 7,440 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living areas)
• Construction: Built in 1945; Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 7,440 sq. ft. (0.1708 acres); Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen (approx. 12 x 11)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 11 x 13, 10 x 11, 10 x 11)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $566 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.39%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,854
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5123 Denmark St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (-2%)	5mo	$220,000	$184	66
7312 Wileyvale Rd Unit D	0.47mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,192 (-2%)	2mo	$199,000	$167	59
7312 Wileyvale Dr Unit C	0.47mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,192 (-2%)	2mo	$199,000	$167	59
7312 Wileyvale Dr Unit A	0.47mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,192 (-2%)	5mo	$209,000	$175	56
6905 Shotwell St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,226 (+0%)	8mo	$140,000	$114	56
7312 Wileyvale Dr Unit E	0.49mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,192 (-2%)	6mo	$209,000	$175	55
4915 Cruse Rd	0.51mi	2/1.5	1,096 (-10%)	4mo	$172,500	$157	54
7311 Wileyvale Rd Unit A	0.51mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,280 (+5%)	6mo	$199,000	$155	50
7921 Pointer St	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-6%)	1mo	$180,000	$157	50
7600 Wileyvale Rd	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,062 (-13%)	9mo	$99,999	$94	46
8203 Westcott St	0.56mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,380 (+13%)	8mo	$204,999	$149	34
9002 Allwood St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,373 (+12%)	10mo	$194,900	$142	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $77,087
• Equity at exit: $80,025

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.80×
• Total profit: $189,500
• Equity at exit: $163,274

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,671 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,289/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $623	-5% $594	+0% $566	+5% $538	+10% $510
Rent	-10% $434	-5% $500	+0% $566	+5% $632	+10% $698
Rate	-1.0pp $616	-0.5pp $592	base $566	+0.5pp $540	+1.0pp $514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7740 Wileyvale Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	45d	1	0.30mi
5609 Denmark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,595	$1.13	45d	1	0.37mi
8639 Peachtree St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	0.49mi
4679 Weaver Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$990	$1.16	45d	1	0.60mi
7119 Bywood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,795	$1.56	45d	1	0.71mi
4442 Weaver Rd Unit 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	25d	1	0.72mi
4422 Weaver Rd Apt 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	45d	1	0.79mi
4326 Plaag St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	0.87mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	45d	1	1.02mi
7418 Bywood St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	1.03mi
6315 Sandra St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,399	$1.22	45d	1	1.05mi
4626 Shreveport Blvd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,490	$1.30	15d	1	1.09mi
8015 Elbert St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,650	$1.62	9d	1	1.09mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	16d	1	1.33mi
4419 Trigg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	0d	1	1.34mi
4419 Trigg St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,145	$1.31	45d	1	1.34mi
9410 Firnat St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	0d	1	1.34mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.34mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	6d	1	1.40mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 16 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	45d	1	1.40mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 17 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	25d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,500 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,500 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $99,500 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $109,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $109,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-05-26
   listed $109,000 Active
10. 1988-02-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,289 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,289 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$2,289
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $5,591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,342
• After-tax cash flow: $5,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $109,000 HARMLS
• 1988-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,289 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.