23849 County 245 Rd · Wheatland, MO 65724

$94,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,380 sqft · Other public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1982 0.26 ac lot ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 3 bedrooms, 2 bath home in Pomme De Terre Lake subdivision. With just a little updating and TLC, this home will make a great full-time or weekend retreat. Oversized garage/shop with loft space, additional carport spaces for boats & RV. Situated just minutes from boat launch onto the lake. Come see this reasonably priced home before it's too late!

Key facts

• Boat launch
• Oversized garage
• Loft space

Tags

• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• LOFT SPACE
• ADDITIONAL CARPORT SPACES
• BOAT LAUNCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.2% in Wheatland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#810 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Hermitage R-IV (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #185 of 535 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hickory County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $93,476 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.86%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $78,272
• Equity at exit: $85,493

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.89×
• Total profit: $209,550
• Equity at exit: $184,370

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65724

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $762/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $760

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $445	+0% $418	+5% $391	+10% $364
Rent	-10% $316	-5% $367	+0% $418	+5% $469	+10% $520
Rate	-1.0pp $465	-0.5pp $442	base $418	+0.5pp $393	+1.0pp $368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $94,900 Active
3. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-29
   price $149,900
5. 2025-12-16
   price $185,250
6. 2025-01-17
   listed $195,000 Active
7. 2021-01-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $762 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 20.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$762
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $3,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$883
• After-tax cash flow: $4,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermitage R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2914310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,066
• Composite: 40.92/100
• National rank: #7513
• State rank: #185 of 535 in MO

Livability — Wheatland

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #810
• US rank: #24271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,728

Population outlook (Hickory County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,206 people
• By 2030: 7,690 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 6,780 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,076 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 5,088 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 4,489 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Italian 17% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickory

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 216.4684
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-51.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — WCAR
• 2026-03-31 Listed $94,900 WCAR
• 2026-02-06 Pending — WCAR
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $149,900 WCAR
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $185,250 WCAR
• 2025-01-17 Listed $195,000 WCAR
• 2021-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $762 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.