4959 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln · Pleak, TX 77461

$234,879

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $183/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Idlewood Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Association fee: $2,200 annually
• HOA & community: Association: ACMI; Community amenities include clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, park, pool, and tennis courts; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Association pool; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Pantry; Kitchen and dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $234,879 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $223,533.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($123/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Pleak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,221 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,533
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5030 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	1mo	$236,790	$163	94
5011 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+4%)	1mo	$216,090	$142	89
5026 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	1mo	$192,991	$147	79
5006 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	1mo	$209,090	$161	78
6810 Papillon Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+8%)	1mo	$239,990	$153	77
5014 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	1mo	$200,090	$154	76
7511 Barcelona Spgs	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-3%)	1mo	$206,991	$147	74
7510 Barcelona Spgs	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-4%)	1mo	$203,990	$145	71
6802 Papillon Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+12%)	0mo	$254,990	$156	70
4838 Summersweet Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	1mo	$226,791	$142	66
6806 Papillon Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+13%)	1mo	$254,990	$154	62
7507 Barcelona Spgs	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+10%)	0mo	$234,990	$147	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,426
• Equity at exit: $33,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-29,419
• Equity at exit: $19,327

Cash invested: $62,589 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,172
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,353/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $223,533

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $87	+0% $10	+5% $-67	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-77	+0% $10	+5% $97	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $67	base $10	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,883
• Closing costs: $6,706
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4707 Pine Meadow Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,200	$1.38	4d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,879 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,879 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,879 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,879 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,879 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,879 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 636-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $234,879 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,521
• − Property taxes: −$3,353
• − Insurance: −$1,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$6,503
• Taxable loss: −$3,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$844
• After-tax cash flow: $966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious and well-maintained living space, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pleak

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1221
• US rank: #21321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,397

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $234,879 HARMLS