49 Blanca Ln #310 · Watsonville, CA 95076

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $498k · 20% under ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATED IN THE BACK OF PARK ON HUGE LOT, THIS IMMACULATE 3BR, 1500+ SQ FT HOME IS IN TURN KEY CONDITION! FEATURES INCLUDE NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING & CARPETS, FRESH INT/EXT PAINT, NEWER COMP ROOF, COOPER PLUMBING, OPEN CEILINGS IN LIVING RM, SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM W/ BUILT IN CAB'S, LARGE MASTER SUITE W/ UPDATED MASTER BATH, 7' 14' TOUGH SHED PLUS ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHED, FENCED YARD, & 3 CAR CARPORT

Key facts

• Pool
• Community room
• Spacious driveway

Tags

• SPACIOUS DRIVEWAY
• SUBSTANTIAL STORAGE UNIT
• MEADOW MANOR COMMUNITY
• POOL
• COMMUNITY ROOM
• ON-SITE LAUNDRY FACILITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 49 Blanca Ln #310, Watsonville, CA 95076
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located within a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: 220-volt electrical in kitchen and laundry; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Built in 1984
• Construction: Composition roof; Madison manufactured double wide
• Exterior features: Backyard; Fenced lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Built-in refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with double sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Great room living area; Skylight(s) in the kitchen; Dining and family room combined; Dual-pane full windows; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (220V available in laundry)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $363k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.9% in Watsonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#323 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Pajaro Valley Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #43 of 517 in CA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,186/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 3051% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 209% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $399k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $363,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $497,664
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49 Blanca Ln #212	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-12%)	20mo	$435,000	$324	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-13,721
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $103,632
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95076

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$879
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,490

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48 Jeanette Way Watsonville, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$4,999	$3.55	13d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 73 DOM
17. 2025-12-09
    historical
18. 2025-11-18
    price
19. 2025-11-02
    status Active
20. 2025-10-22
    status Pending
21. 2025-10-18
    price
22. 2025-09-09
    listed Active
23. 2010-02-22
    soldstatus $127,000 Sold 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    LOCATED IN THE BACK OF PARK ON HUGE LOT, THIS IMMACULATE 3BR, 1500+ SQ FT HOME IS IN TURN KEY CONDITION! FEATURES INCLUDE NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING & CARPETS, FRESH INT/EXT PAINT, NEWER COMP ROOF, COOPER PLUMBING, OPEN CEILINGS IN LIVING RM, SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM W/ BUILT IN CAB'S, LARGE MASTER SUITE W/ UPDATED MASTER BATH, 7' 14' TOUGH SHED PLUS ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHED, FENCED YARD, & 3 CAR CARPORT

24. 2009-12-16
    status Pending (Do Not Show) 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    LOCATED IN THE BACK OF PARK ON HUGE LOT, THIS IMMACULATE 3BR, 1500+ SQ FT HOME IS IN TURN KEY CONDITION! FEATURES INCLUDE NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING & CARPETS, FRESH INT/EXT PAINT, NEWER COMP ROOF, COOPER PLUMBING, OPEN CEILINGS IN LIVING RM, SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM W/ BUILT IN CAB'S, LARGE MASTER SUITE W/ UPDATED MASTER BATH, 7' 14' TOUGH SHED PLUS ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHED, FENCED YARD, & 3 CAR CARPORT

25. 2009-11-29
    status Pending Without Release 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    LOCATED IN THE BACK OF PARK ON HUGE LOT, THIS IMMACULATE 3BR, 1500+ SQ FT HOME IS IN TURN KEY CONDITION! FEATURES INCLUDE NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING & CARPETS, FRESH INT/EXT PAINT, NEWER COMP ROOF, COOPER PLUMBING, OPEN CEILINGS IN LIVING RM, SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM W/ BUILT IN CAB'S, LARGE MASTER SUITE W/ UPDATED MASTER BATH, 7' 14' TOUGH SHED PLUS ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHED, FENCED YARD, & 3 CAR CARPORT

26. 2009-06-15
    listed $129,000 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    LOCATED IN THE BACK OF PARK ON HUGE LOT, THIS IMMACULATE 3BR, 1500+ SQ FT HOME IS IN TURN KEY CONDITION! FEATURES INCLUDE NEWER LAMINATE FLOORING & CARPETS, FRESH INT/EXT PAINT, NEWER COMP ROOF, COOPER PLUMBING, OPEN CEILINGS IN LIVING RM, SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM W/ BUILT IN CAB'S, LARGE MASTER SUITE W/ UPDATED MASTER BATH, 7' 14' TOUGH SHED PLUS ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHED, FENCED YARD, & 3 CAR CARPORT

27. 2006-03-30
    historical
28. 2006-02-16
    soldstatus $165,000
29. 2005-12-12
    listed $169,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,018
• − Management: −$4,018
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable income: $254
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$61
• After-tax cash flow: $6,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pajaro Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629490
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 52.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 42.00%
• Median HH income: $60,619
• Composite: 64.53/100
• National rank: #537
• State rank: #43 of 517 in CA

Livability — Watsonville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #10972

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment C Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watsonville, CA
• County: Santa Cruz County · 225,113 people
• City population: 82,806
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 82,806
• Household income: $91,099
• Rent vs Own: 43.3% rent · 56.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3051.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 299,046 people
• By 2030: 311,246 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 332,813 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 352,797 · +18.0%
• By 2075: 406,837 · +36.0%
• By 2100: 435,763 · +45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% White 22% Two or more races 19% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 61% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+54.4) · D 75.3% · R 20.9% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 54.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+54.4 2020: D+60.3 2016: D+57.3 2012: D+54.1 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -883.52%
• Current HPI: 273.5604
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.64%
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-02 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-22 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-09 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-02-22 Sold (MLS) $127,000 MLSListings
• 2009-12-16 Pending — MLSListings
• 2009-11-29 Pending — MLSListings
• 2009-06-15 Listed $129,000 MLSListings
• 2006-03-30 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2006-02-16 Sold (MLS) $165,000 MLSListings
• 2005-12-12 Listed $169,000 MLSListings

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $636 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.