1815 Bethel Beach Rd · Mathews, VA 23130

$185,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,514 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1950 7.07 ac lot Est $257k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming Country Farmhouse Near Bethel Beach – Two Parcels totaling 7.06 Acres Step back in time and embrace the charm of this classic country farmhouse, ideally situated just minutes from the sandy white shores of Bethel Beach along the Chesapeake Bay. Nestled in a peaceful coastal setting, this unique property includes two parcels totaling approximately 7.06 acres—1.1 acres with the home plus an additional 5.96-acre parcel, offering endless possibilities for expansion, recreation, or privacy. The home features 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, with a spacious living room complete with a closet, and a large dining room that could easily serve as an eat-in kitchen. The freshly painted

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Three outbuildings
• Two parcels

Tags

• COUNTRY FARMHOUSE
• TWO PARCELS
• 7.06 ACRES
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• THREE OUTBUILDINGS
• PUBLIC BOAT LANDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with workshop — 1 garage space
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels / 2-story
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Outbuilding and shed(s); Additional garage storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (other); Ceiling fans for cooling; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Window coverings and treatments; Decorative fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer/dryer; Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.3% in Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mathews Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 318 students, 68% FRL); Thomas Hunter Middle (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D+, #264 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 283 students, 73% FRL); Mathews High (math 57% / reading 87%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 310 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 34% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.62%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,380
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2138 Bethel Beach Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,555 (+3%)	22mo	$265,000	$170	57
1510 Bethel Beach Rd	0.29mi	2/1.0	1,334 (-12%)	12mo	$150,000	$112	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $32,748
• Equity at exit: $83,184

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $102,479
• Equity at exit: $128,196

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23130

• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $761/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,946

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $214	+0% $161	+5% $109	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $-9	-5% $76	+0% $161	+5% $246	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $208	base $161	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
532 Wolf Trap Ln Port Haywood, VA	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,150	$1.19	45d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 687-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $761 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$756/yr (+$63/mo · 99.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$761
• − Insurance: −$6,044
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$878
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$211
• After-tax cash flow: $2,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathews County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102430
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,875
• Composite: 46.66/100
• National rank: #2407
• State rank: #79 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mathews

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #16333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,525
• Population (ZIP): 69

Population outlook (Mathews County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,597 people
• By 2030: 8,385 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 7,842 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 7,315 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 7,064 · -17.8%
• By 2100: 6,858 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Mathews

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+31.3 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $185,000 CBRAR

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $761 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.