2068 SW Morelia Ln · Port St. Lucie, FL 34953

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1984 10,000 sqft lot Est $323k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFULLY RENOVATED 3/2/1! TILE & WOOD FLOORS, CROWN MOLDING, NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES, GRANITE COUNTERS, UPDATED BATHS. NEW A/C SYSTEM AND WATER HEATER! PERFECT FOR 1ST TIME HOME BUYER! MOVE IN READY!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Kitchen pantry
• Granite countertops

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FULLY-FENCED BACKYARD
• CROWN MOLDING
• KITCHEN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $646 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 758 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $235k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.78%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,920
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2068 SW Morelia Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,196 (0%)	1mo	$226,000	$189	99
726 SW Bond Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+1%)	3mo	$325,000	$270	84
2049 SW Monterrey Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (+8%)	2mo	$320,000	$248	66
2012 SW Cameo Blvd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,070 (-10%)	11mo	$289,000	$270	58
502 SW Banks Ter	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-2%)	9mo	$290,000	$247	56
719 SW Arkansas Ter	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,093 (-9%)	21mo	$333,000	$305	53
885 SW California Blvd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,125 (-6%)	14mo	$220,000	$196	50
2140 SW Cameo Blvd	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,027 (-14%)	20mo	$289,000	$281	49
849 SW Commonwealth Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+4%)	20mo	$355,000	$286	46
819 SW Duncan Ter	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+9%)	14mo	$340,000	$261	39
1862 SW Hampshire Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,072 (-10%)	21mo	$289,000	$270	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,200
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $21,168
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34953

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 758
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,633 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,252/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $646

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,816

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $779	-5% $712	+0% $646	+5% $579	+10% $513
Rent	-10% $438	-5% $542	+0% $646	+5% $750	+10% $854
Rate	-1.0pp $764	-0.5pp $705	base $646	+0.5pp $585	+1.0pp $523

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
481 SW Voltair Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$3,300	$3.12	24d	1	0.39mi
613 SW Pueblo Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$2,200	$1.82	24d	1	0.44mi
613 SW Pueblo Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$2,200	$1.82	14d	1	0.44mi
2010 SW Burlington St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1118	$2,600	$2.33	24d	1	0.57mi
1841 SW McAllister Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1146	$2,250	$1.96	21d	1	0.62mi
2265 SW Edison Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1305	$2,250	$1.72	24d	1	0.68mi
279 SW Glenwood Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$2,975	$2.14	24d	1	0.74mi
262 SW Crescent Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,600	$1.75	24d	1	0.76mi
2342 SW Bayshore Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,300	$1.96	24d	1	0.77mi
581 SW Banks Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,100	$2.19	14d	1	0.78mi
233 SW Chapman Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,250	$0.85	21d	1	0.83mi
2174 SW Wayne St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,370	$1.62	24d	1	0.94mi
1050 SW Fenway Rd Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1035	$2,000	$1.93	24d	1	0.96mi
2617 SW Chestnut Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,675	$1.84	24d	1	0.97mi
205 SW Voltair Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	925	$2,095	$2.26	21d	1	0.98mi
481 SW Aster Rd Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1499	$3,000	$2.00	24d	1	1.07mi
1080 SW Colorado Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,150	$1.73	24d	1	1.09mi
1881 SE Airoso Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,200	$1.59	24d	1	1.30mi
385 SW Fairway Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,800	$1.94	24d	1	1.30mi
326 SW Ray Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,400	$1.78	24d	1	1.47mi
326 SW Ray Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,350	$1.74	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $235,000 Active
3. 2012-12-19
   soldstatus $79,000
4. 2012-12-13
   soldstatus $79,000 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   BEAUTIFULLY RENOVATED 3/2/1! TILE & WOOD FLOORS, CROWN MOLDING, NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES, GRANITE COUNTERS, UPDATED BATHS. NEW A/C SYSTEM AND WATER HEATER! PERFECT FOR 1ST TIME HOME BUYER! MOVE IN READY!

5. 2012-11-15
   historical 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   BEAUTIFULLY RENOVATED 3/2/1! TILE & WOOD FLOORS, CROWN MOLDING, NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES, GRANITE COUNTERS, UPDATED BATHS. NEW A/C SYSTEM AND WATER HEATER! PERFECT FOR 1ST TIME HOME BUYER! MOVE IN READY!

6. 2012-10-03
   listed $89,975 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   BEAUTIFULLY RENOVATED 3/2/1! TILE & WOOD FLOORS, CROWN MOLDING, NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES, GRANITE COUNTERS, UPDATED BATHS. NEW A/C SYSTEM AND WATER HEATER! PERFECT FOR 1ST TIME HOME BUYER! MOVE IN READY!

7. 2012-07-31
   soldstatus $25,000 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Buyers must pre-qual. with Chase, call listing agent for contact info.

8. 2012-05-24
   historical 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Buyers must pre-qual. with Chase, call listing agent for contact info.

9. 2012-05-16
   listed $26,730 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Buyers must pre-qual. with Chase, call listing agent for contact info.

10. 2000-03-02
    soldstatus $57,500
11. 2000-02-25
    soldstatus $57,500
12. 2000-02-02
    historical
13. 1999-10-25
    listed $57,500
14. 1996-05-07
    soldstatus $48,500
15. 1991-07-11
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,252 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$698/yr (+$58/mo · 55.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,252
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,528
• − Management: −$2,528
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $4,117
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$988
• After-tax cash flow: $6,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 86,875
• Household income: $85,667
• Rent vs Own: 13.1% rent · 86.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 23% Two or more races 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 392.7681
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+459.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $235,000 Beaches MLS
• 2012-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2012-12-13 Sold (MLS) $79,000 Beaches MLS
• 2012-11-15 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2012-10-03 Listed $89,975 Beaches MLS
• 2012-07-31 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Beaches MLS
• 2012-05-24 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2012-05-16 Listed $26,730 Beaches MLS
• 2000-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 2000-02-25 Sold (MLS) $57,500 Beaches MLS
• 2000-02-02 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 1999-10-25 Listed $57,500 Beaches MLS
• 1996-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 1991-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,252 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.