3454 Willowrun Dr · Austin, TX 78704

$599,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,352 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1973 9,234 sqft lot $255/sqft · 31% below area Est $862k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Well located four-plex in South Austin offering immediate rental income and long-term investment potential. The property features four 1-bedroom, 1-bath units, each approximately 588 square feet, with practical layouts designed for comfortable everyday living. Each unit includes washer and dryer connections, a fireplace, and a private yard space, providing added functionality and outdoor enjoyment rarely found in multifamily properties of this size. The two-story building allows for separation between units while maintaining efficient use of space. Conveniently positioned with quick access to major roadways including I-35 and just minutes from South Austin dining, retail, and entertainment districts. The location provides strong rental demand and easy connectivity to central Austin employment hubs.

Key facts

• Two-story building
• Private yard space
• 9,234 sq ft lot

Tags

• IMMEDIATE RENTAL INCOME
• LONG-TERM INVESTMENT POTENTIAL
• WASHER AND DRYER CONNECTIONS
• PRIVATE YARD SPACE
• TWO-STORY BUILDING
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-462 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $517k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $504k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $504k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 521 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,039/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 3283% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($545k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $99k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $213k; list at $599k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $503,900 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $862,345
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: -30.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-140,996
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-216,673
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78704

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 521
• Price-to-rent: 39.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$1,052 /mo · $12,624/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,058
• Net cashflow: $-462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,624

Max offer price $517,379

Occupancy floor —

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	1	1	$5,040
Total (4 units)			$5,039

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3411 Willow Springs Rd Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2773	$3,200	$1.15	44d	1	0.14mi
208 Braeswood Rd Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1735	$3,500	$2.02	15d	1	0.26mi
127 Frederick St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2259	$6,500	$2.88	24d	1	0.56mi
3705 Wilson St Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$6,250	$2.83	2d	1	0.61mi
2603 Nottingham Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1937	$5,200	$2.68	12d	1	0.65mi
2503 Wilson St Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,500	$1.36	24d	1	0.97mi
2804 S 1st St #2106 Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$4,300	$2.43	4d	1	0.97mi
2603 Parker Ln Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	2244	$1,800	$0.80	24d	1	0.99mi
3602 S 2nd St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1766	$4,600	$2.60	24d	1	0.99mi
2624 Metcalfe Rd #8 Austin, TX	3.0	3.5	1788	$3,300	$1.85	24d	1	1.02mi
2624 Metcalfe Rd Austin, TX	3.0	3.5–4.0	1786	$3,100	$1.74	44d	2	1.02mi
3505 Villa Ct #10 Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	1719	$4,250	$2.47	15d	1	1.03mi
903 Cardinal Ln Unit A Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2036	$4,400	$2.16	24d	1	1.03mi
2212 East Side Dr Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	2808	$7,995	$2.85	44d	1	1.03mi
411 W Saint Elmo Rd #34 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2053	$3,050	$1.49	4d	1	1.06mi
2804 Catalina Dr Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1728	$1,975	$1.14	18d	1	1.12mi
206 E Live Oak St Unit C Austin, TX	3.0	3.5	2236	$4,700	$2.10	24d	1	1.16mi
3700 Garden Villa Ln #1 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$4,000	$2.38	44d	1	1.17mi
3400 Laguna Dr Austin, TX	5.0	2.0	1875	$5,950	$3.17	22d	1	1.18mi
4416 S 1st St #2 Austin, TX	4.0	3.5	3000	$6,750	$2.25	18d	1	1.18mi
2109 Brackenridge St Unit A Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	2371	$7,500	$3.16	4d	1	1.19mi
2107 Brackenridge St Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	2291	$8,750	$3.82	44d	1	1.21mi
2109 Nickerson St Austin, TX	3.0	3.5	2329	$7,500	$3.22	24d	1	1.22mi
1913 Fairlawn Ln Austin, TX	4.0	4.0	2735	$8,000	$2.93	44d	1	1.29mi
609 Fletcher St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$4,500	$2.80	24d	1	1.29mi
502 Terrace Dr Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	2606	$6,500	$2.49	44d	1	1.30mi
3112 Corbin Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1750	$4,850	$2.77	44d	1	1.35mi
2314 S 5th St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1757	$4,200	$2.39	4d	1	1.45mi
1120 Fairmount Ave Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2026	$4,795	$2.37	15d	1	1.47mi
1120 Fairmount Ave Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	2026	$4,795	$2.37	12d	1	1.47mi
4904 Creekline Dr Austin, TX	3.0	1.5	1715	$2,975	$1.73	18d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $599,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $698,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $698,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $698,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $698,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $698,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $698,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    listed $698,000 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    Well located four-plex in South Austin offering immediate rental income and long-term investment potential. The property features four 1-bedroom, 1-bath units, each approximately 588 square feet, with practical layouts designed for comfortable everyday living. Each unit includes washer and dryer connections, a fireplace, and a private yard space, providing added functionality and outdoor enjoyment rarely found in multifamily properties of this size. The two-story building allows for separation between units while maintaining efficient use of space. Conveniently positioned with quick access to major roadways including I-35 and just minutes from South Austin dining, retail, and entertainment districts. The location provides strong rental demand and easy connectivity to central Austin employment hubs.

16. 2024-05-29
    soldstatus
17. 2012-04-04
    historical Withdrawn
18. 2012-01-24
    price
19. 2011-08-24
    listed Active
20. 2010-04-09
    historical
21. 2010-02-10
    listed
22. 2010-01-01
    historical
23. 2009-10-27
    listed
24. 2009-10-07
    historical
25. 2009-04-07
    listed
26. 2005-09-26
    soldstatus
27. 2005-09-20
    soldstatus $213,000
28. 2005-08-22
    historical
29. 2005-07-26
    listed $213,000
30. 1984-06-21
    soldstatus
31. 1981-10-16
    soldstatus
32. 1980-07-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,624 · $1,052/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,624 · $1,052/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$12,624
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,837
• − Management: −$4,837
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$15,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,793
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 50,688
• Household income: $106,897
• Rent vs Own: 67.0% rent · 33.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3283.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1348.92%
• Current HPI: 291.6793
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+227.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $698,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-04-04 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2012-01-24 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2011-08-24 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2010-04-09 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2010-02-10 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2010-01-01 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2009-10-27 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2009-10-07 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2009-04-07 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2005-09-26 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2005-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $213,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-22 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2005-07-26 Listed $213,000 Unlock MLS
• 1984-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1980-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $12,624 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.