2693 Cr 3420 · Hawkins, TX 75765

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition 0.26 ac lot $156/sqft · 33% below area Est $283k · 33% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you hunting for a lake house or a shake house? No cap — this one’s for you! Plenty of room for all the friends who want to summer party in the USA (or just chill and pretend to be influencers). If you make this your homestead, the fireplace is actually FIRE — perfect for cozy holiday vibes and dramatic marshmallow roasts. The porch is prime for sneaky naps and mosquito-free gossip. Located on Lake Hawkins, so you’re steps away from boating, fishing, and sunset flexing. Don’t sleep on this one — summer fun awaits.

Key facts

• Porch
• Lake house
• Fireplace

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• PORCH
• LAKE HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#196 in TX, #4,982 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $178,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.04%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,506
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -32.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $40,924
• Equity at exit: $86,420

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $120,666
• Equity at exit: $133,993

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
230 Private Road 7422 Unit 7422 Hawkins, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	43d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $189,900 Active 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    Are you hunting for a lake house or a shake house? No cap — this one’s for you! Plenty of room for all the friends who want to summer party in the USA (or just chill and pretend to be influencers). If you make this your homestead, the fireplace is actually FIRE — perfect for cozy holiday vibes and dramatic marshmallow roasts. The porch is prime for sneaky naps and mosquito-free gossip. Located on Lake Hawkins, so you’re steps away from boating, fishing, and sunset flexing. Don’t sleep on this one — summer fun awaits.

17. 2026-01-28
    historical
18. 2025-07-30
    status Active
19. 2025-07-24
    historical Active Option Contract
20. 2025-07-22
    price $199,900
21. 2025-07-03
    price $214,900
22. 2025-01-22
    listed $229,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $200
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$48
• After-tax cash flow: $3,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This lakefront property offers a moderate renovation opportunity with average condition, requiring exterior updates and landscaping improvements to enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and may need repainting.
• Moderate Roof — May need inspection for any potential issues.
• Moderate Landscaping — Sparse and may need improvement for curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding and roof — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Boosts curb appeal and rental value.
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile flooring — Improves aesthetics and value.
• Both Update kitchen and bathroom fixtures — Modernizes spaces and enhances value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and may need repainting.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Roof · May need inspection for any potential issues.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Sparse and may need improvement for curb appeal.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding and roof — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Boosts curb appeal and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile flooring — Improves aesthetics and value. ↑
• Both Update kitchen and bathroom fixtures — Modernizes spaces and enhances value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822770
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,119
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4809
• State rank: #339 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hawkins

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4982

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $189,900 LAAR
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-30 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-07-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $214,900 NTREIS
• 2025-01-22 Listed $229,900 NTREIS