Baker Plan · Columbia, SC 29045

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily · 427 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Baker is a one-story plan featuring three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Upon entry, you will notice two bedrooms and a shared bathroom to your left. The great room with an optional boxed ceiling starts the common areas and flows seamlessly into the eat-in and kitchen. The primary suite is located off the kitchen and has a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Available upgrades for the primary suite include a boxed ceiling and garden tub. A one-car garage and optional covered porch complete this floor plan.

Key facts

• Listed 427 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $210,000

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Baker)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,148; New construction
• Exterior features: Address: 2223 County Line Trl, Elgin SC 29045

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Baker; New construction plan

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($123/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.1% in Columbia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#18 in SC, #2,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Richland 02 (suburban): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #29 of 80 in SC (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summit Parkway Middle (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #389 of 597 statewide, top 66%, 1,154 students, 62% FRL); Spring Valley High (math 53% / reading 92%, grade B+, #46 of 196 statewide, top 24%, 2,187 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 38% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,472 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (1,096 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 427 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 427 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-33,906
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-30,843
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29045

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $83	+0% $10	+5% $-62	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-63	+0% $10	+5% $83	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $64	base $10	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $210,000 Active 427 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 424 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 423 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 422 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 421 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 419 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 513-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $210,000 Active 418 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$822
• After-tax cash flow: $945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland 02
• NCES district ID: 4503390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,684
• Composite: 36.2/100
• National rank: #4730
• State rank: #29 of 80 in SC

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #2436

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, SC
• County: Kershaw County · 47,655 people
• City population: 335,994
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 31,372
• Household income: $87,366
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 204.0

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 459,667 people
• By 2030: 487,524 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 542,035 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 595,371 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 732,998 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 820,415 · +78.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.6) · D 66.4% · R 31.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.7pp toward D · 2008: 28.9pp · 2024: 34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.6 2020: D+38.3 2016: D+32.9 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.60%
• Current HPI: 209.2469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B