Primrose Plan · Fulshear, TX 77441

$270,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · SingleFamily · 963 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 963 days

🏗️ New construction. The $270,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,515.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 963 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,244 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 963 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.49%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,515
• List price: $270,490
• Delta: -8.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5815 Sunrise Bottom Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+4%)	8mo	$264,990	$198	85
5834 Dawning Sun St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	15mo	$279,990	$211	75
5803 Sunrise Bottom Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+12%)	13mo	$304,990	$210	67
32615 Orchard Haze Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,307 (+1%)	11mo	$239,000	$183	52
32702 Orchard Haze Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-3%)	13mo	$240,000	$191	50
32723 Orchard Haze Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,310 (+1%)	10mo	$235,000	$179	50
32715 Orchard Haze Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-3%)	14mo	$240,000	$191	49
32619 Orchard Haze Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,255 (-3%)	19mo	$239,000	$190	47
5451 Grand View Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+10%)	18mo	$254,900	$179	44
32727 Dew Crest Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,307 (+1%)	19mo	$249,000	$191	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-69,642
• Equity at exit: $43,913

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-105,931
• Equity at exit: $25,464

Cash invested: $82,464 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,272 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,544
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,418/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,576

Max offer price $259,772

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-138	+0% $-240	+5% $-342	+10% $-444
Rent	-10% $-420	-5% $-330	+0% $-240	+5% $-150	+10% $-61
Rate	-1.0pp $-92	-0.5pp $-165	base $-240	+0.5pp $-316	+1.0pp $-394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,629
• Closing costs: $8,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $270,490 Active 963 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,490 Active 960 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,490 Active 959 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,490 Active 958 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,490 Active 957 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,490 Active 955 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $270,490 Active 951 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,490 Active 950 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,490 Active 949 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $270,490 Active 946 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,490 Active 945 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,490 Active 944 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,490 Active 943 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,490 Active 942 DOM
15. 2025-08-12
    price $270,490 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

16. 2025-08-12
    price $279,490 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

17. 2025-07-02
    price $270,490 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

18. 2025-03-08
    price $280,490 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

19. 2025-01-17
    price $279,740 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

20. 2024-07-18
    price $278,490 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

21. 2024-04-02
    price $277,490 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

22. 2024-02-10
    price $274,490 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

23. 2023-11-01
    listed $273,490 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Welcome to the Primrose, a charming one-story home offering between 1,295 and 1,342 square feet of functional living space, with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an option for a 2- or 3-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,497
• − Property taxes: −$4,418
• − Insurance: −$1,473
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,182
• − Management: −$2,182
• − Depreciation: −$8,568
• Taxable loss: −$8,049
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,932
• After-tax cash flow: $-949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and modern finishes, making it a good candidate for a cosmetic renovation to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior stone — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes spaces and improves rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior stone — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes spaces and improves rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $270,490 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $279,490 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $270,490 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $280,490 Zillow
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $279,740 Zillow
• 2024-07-18 Price Changed $278,490 Zillow
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $277,490 Zillow
• 2024-02-10 Price Changed $274,490 Zillow
• 2023-11-01 Listed $273,490 Zillow