The Palm Harbor Plan · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$164,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Manufactured · 363 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Palm Harbor Model 2 BR/2 Bath 28' X 48' 1288 SQ FT, it's here & set to go!!! Call Frank today to get an appointment view this spectacular floorplan ASAP! You can lock yourself into this amazing gem now and secure it before it is gone! See what excellent living at Swan Lake Village is all about. Tax, title, & registration extra. J-23 $164,900 Enjoy hassle-free living with trash, water, sewer, lawn care, and all community amenities included. Swan Lake Village is a pet-friendly community, conveniently located just minutes away from dining and shopping. Residents can take advantage of the swimming pool, fitness area, billiard room, clubhouse, and shuffleboard courts. Plus, there

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Fitness area
• Swimming pool

Tags

• PET-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES INCLUDED
• SWIMMING POOL
• FITNESS AREA
• BILLIARD ROOM
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,286; Addressed in Bradenton, FL 34207
• Financial info: List price $164,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family plan: The Palm Harbor
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Other heating
• Interior features: Open living area

🏗️ New construction. The $164,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $146,604.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, schools F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 363 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 363 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.51%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,604
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5512 Colleen Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+6%)	4mo	$85,000	$62	60
308 Danube Cir	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,272 (-1%)	14mo	$145,000	$114	58
5522 Chateau Ln	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-7%)	18mo	$190,000	$158	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,032
• Equity at exit: $21,859

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,462
• Equity at exit: $12,676

Cash invested: $41,049 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$769
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$183 /mo · $2,199/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,282

Max offer price $146,604

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $342	+0% $291	+5% $240	+10% $190
Rent	-10% $161	-5% $226	+0% $291	+5% $356	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $328	base $291	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,651
• Closing costs: $4,398
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1007 57th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	967	$1,495	$1.55	11d	1	0.32mi
512 60th Avenue Ter W Unit 512 Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.5	972	$1,900	$1.95	11d	1	0.40mi
5580 Fountain Lake Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$1,908	$1.81	3d	38	0.51mi
5896 Palm Ln Unit C27 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$1,400	$1.45	25d	1	0.55mi
5502 8th Street Ct W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,595	$1.78	25d	1	0.60mi
5513 18th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	25d	1	0.61mi
5820 21st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,995	$1.79	4d	1	0.63mi
3 Date Ave Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	25d	1	0.64mi
2423 60th Ave W Unit K29 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,495	$1.46	25d	1	0.75mi
5828 3rd St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,995	$1.93	25d	1	0.76mi
304 57th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,445	$1.20	25d	3	0.76mi
304 57th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,362	$1.13	4d	5	0.76mi
308 57th Avenue Dr E Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,350	$1.12	4d	1	0.78mi
312 57th Avenue Dr E Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,350	$1.12	4d	1	0.80mi
808 53rd Ave E #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,450	$1.20	17d	1	0.82mi
408 57th Avenue Dr E Apt E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,375	$1.14	13d	1	0.84mi
408 57th Avenue Dr E Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,350	$1.12	11d	1	0.84mi
906 66th Ave W Unit 906 Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	17d	1	0.86mi
409 57th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1209	$1,375	$1.14	11d	1	0.86mi
2415 Holyoke Ave Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1134	$2,599	$2.29	25d	1	0.93mi
2408 Colgate Ave Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$5,500	$3.71	25d	1	0.98mi
613 61st Avenue Ter E Unit 613 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$2,195	$1.84	17d	1	1.00mi
2713 60th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,000	$1.86	25d	1	1.01mi
804 67th Avenue Ter W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,950	$1.66	11d	1	1.06mi
716 56th Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	4d	1	1.08mi
5613 8th St Ct E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	25d	1	1.14mi
6432 26th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,800	$1.40	17d	1	1.14mi
503 51st Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	882	$1,075	$1.22	13d	1	1.15mi
503 51st Ave W Unit 503 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	882	$1,275	$1.45	25d	1	1.15mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,550	$1.96	21d	5	1.19mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	4d	4	1.19mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	13d	5	1.19mi
5400 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,651	$1.83	25d	1	1.23mi
708 65th Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1800	$2,195	$1.22	17d	1	1.24mi
1011 57th Avenue Ter E Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1872	$2,195	$1.17	13d	1	1.25mi
4916 18th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,650	$1.41	25d	1	1.29mi
6439 Georgia Ave Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1614	$2,095	$1.30	11d	1	1.29mi
6101 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1444	$1,890	$1.31	4d	2	1.30mi
1022 61st Avenue Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	970	$1,450	$1.49	17d	1	1.30mi
6101 34th St W Unit 27C Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,250	$1.45	21d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $164,900 Active 363 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 360 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 359 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 358 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 357 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 355 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 354 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 352 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 351 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 350 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 349 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 345 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 344 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 343 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 342 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,212
• − Property taxes: −$2,199
• − Insurance: −$733
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$4,265
• Taxable income: $1,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$296
• After-tax cash flow: $3,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayshore Gardens, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B