2317 Thunderbolt Peak Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$258,346

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2018 7,095 sqft lot $141/sqft · 21% below area Est $328k · 21% under $135/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this charming home on an oversized corner lot in the quiet Sierra Vista community, with easy access to scenic ponds, a neighborhood playset, and Highway 288. Recent Roof Solar Panels installed and stay with the home. Inside, the split floor plan offers a tiled entry, upgraded decorative lighting, neutral paint tones, and abundant natural light throughout. The main entertaining space flows from an open dining area into a spacious eat-in kitchen featuring a large island with bar seating, granite countertops, stainless steel gas appliances, a walk-in pantry, and plenty of cabinet storage, while the adjacent living room open to Kitchen. The primary suite includes a stylish barn door entry to the en-suite bath with dual vanities, soaking tub, separate shower, and oversized walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms share a full bath. Two car garage. Don’t miss the backyard’s large covered patio and expansive grassy space, ideal for all your outdoor entertaining needs.

Key facts

• 7,095 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($33/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $258k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,094 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,134
• List price: $258,346
• Delta: -21.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9822 Garnet Springs Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,879 (+3%)	1mo	$260,000	$138	74
2442 Goddard Green Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,809 (-1%)	0mo	$279,000	$154	72
9902 Smokey Quartz Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,930 (+6%)	6mo	$249,900	$129	65
1910 Temple Grove Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,837 (+0%)	0mo	$368,990	$201	61
10518 Sutter Creek Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,852 (+1%)	3mo	$354,900	$192	60
9930 Opal Rock Dr	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,659 (-9%)	1mo	$235,000	$142	56
2429 Abbot Brook Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,641 (-10%)	2mo	$210,000	$128	54
2107 Tioga View Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-9%)	1mo	$359,900	$217	52
2119 Tioga View Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-9%)	3mo	$359,900	$217	51
1614 Diamond Mountain Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-6%)	1mo	$265,000	$155	48
1814 Homewood Point Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-11%)	3mo	$319,990	$196	46
1858 Opal Peach Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-13%)	7mo	$234,999	$147	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-48,733
• Equity at exit: $38,520

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-69,609
• Equity at exit: $22,337

Cash invested: $72,337 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,956 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,355
• Tax from tax record: −$735 /mo · $8,823/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,953

Max offer price $258,346

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,586
• Closing costs: $7,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$3,025	$1.75	1d	6	0.02mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	43d	7	0.02mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	43d	1	0.06mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,719	$1.64	1d	21	0.38mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	43d	1	0.49mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	22d	1	0.63mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,456	$0.94	7d	1	0.80mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	43d	1	0.98mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	43d	1	1.10mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	7d	1	1.11mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,726	$1.57	4d	1	1.11mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	43d	1	1.13mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,875	$1.48	2d	1	1.14mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	1d	1	1.18mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	1d	1	1.21mi
1234 Scarlet Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	1d	1	1.22mi
10538 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,775	$1.82	1d	1	1.28mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,850	$1.79	20d	1	1.29mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	43d	1	1.32mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	43d	1	1.33mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	12d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,346 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,346 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,346 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,346 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,346 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,346 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $258,346 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,346 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $258,346 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $258,346 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,346 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,346 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $258,346 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,346 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-03-03
    listed $258,346 Active 997-char remark

    Show marketing remark (997 chars)

    Discover this charming home on an oversized corner lot in the quiet Sierra Vista community, with easy access to scenic ponds, a neighborhood playset, and Highway 288. Recent Roof Solar Panels installed and stay with the home. Inside, the split floor plan offers a tiled entry, upgraded decorative lighting, neutral paint tones, and abundant natural light throughout. The main entertaining space flows from an open dining area into a spacious eat-in kitchen featuring a large island with bar seating, granite countertops, stainless steel gas appliances, a walk-in pantry, and plenty of cabinet storage, while the adjacent living room open to Kitchen. The primary suite includes a stylish barn door entry to the en-suite bath with dual vanities, soaking tub, separate shower, and oversized walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms share a full bath. Two car garage. Don’t miss the backyard’s large covered patio and expansive grassy space, ideal for all your outdoor entertaining needs.

16. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus
17. 2022-05-25
    soldstatus Sold 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Charming & well-maintained home on an oversize corner lot in the quiet Sierra Vista community w/ easy access to large ponds, community playset, & HWY 288. Outside features a manicured lawn w/ fresh landscaping, 2 car garage, & a covered front porch. Inside find a split floor plan design offering a tile entry, upgraded decorative lighting, neutral paint tones, & able natural light throughout. The main entertaining space includes an open dining area that leads to the eat-in kitchen w/ a large island w/ bar seating, granite counters, SS gas appliances, pantry, & plenty of cabinet storage. Adjacent is the spacious living room & access to the backyard. The primary includes a barn door entry to the en-suite bath, dual vanities, soaking tub, separate shower, & sizable walk-in closet. 3 additional bedrooms that share a full bath & utility room complete this home. Don't forget to check out the backyard offering a large patio & tons of grass space perfect for all your outdoor entertaining needs.

18. 2022-05-06
    status Pending 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Charming & well-maintained home on an oversize corner lot in the quiet Sierra Vista community w/ easy access to large ponds, community playset, & HWY 288. Outside features a manicured lawn w/ fresh landscaping, 2 car garage, & a covered front porch. Inside find a split floor plan design offering a tile entry, upgraded decorative lighting, neutral paint tones, & able natural light throughout. The main entertaining space includes an open dining area that leads to the eat-in kitchen w/ a large island w/ bar seating, granite counters, SS gas appliances, pantry, & plenty of cabinet storage. Adjacent is the spacious living room & access to the backyard. The primary includes a barn door entry to the en-suite bath, dual vanities, soaking tub, separate shower, & sizable walk-in closet. 3 additional bedrooms that share a full bath & utility room complete this home. Don't forget to check out the backyard offering a large patio & tons of grass space perfect for all your outdoor entertaining needs.

19. 2022-04-27
    status Option Pending 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Charming & well-maintained home on an oversize corner lot in the quiet Sierra Vista community w/ easy access to large ponds, community playset, & HWY 288. Outside features a manicured lawn w/ fresh landscaping, 2 car garage, & a covered front porch. Inside find a split floor plan design offering a tile entry, upgraded decorative lighting, neutral paint tones, & able natural light throughout. The main entertaining space includes an open dining area that leads to the eat-in kitchen w/ a large island w/ bar seating, granite counters, SS gas appliances, pantry, & plenty of cabinet storage. Adjacent is the spacious living room & access to the backyard. The primary includes a barn door entry to the en-suite bath, dual vanities, soaking tub, separate shower, & sizable walk-in closet. 3 additional bedrooms that share a full bath & utility room complete this home. Don't forget to check out the backyard offering a large patio & tons of grass space perfect for all your outdoor entertaining needs.

20. 2022-04-20
    listed $330,000 Active 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Charming & well-maintained home on an oversize corner lot in the quiet Sierra Vista community w/ easy access to large ponds, community playset, & HWY 288. Outside features a manicured lawn w/ fresh landscaping, 2 car garage, & a covered front porch. Inside find a split floor plan design offering a tile entry, upgraded decorative lighting, neutral paint tones, & able natural light throughout. The main entertaining space includes an open dining area that leads to the eat-in kitchen w/ a large island w/ bar seating, granite counters, SS gas appliances, pantry, & plenty of cabinet storage. Adjacent is the spacious living room & access to the backyard. The primary includes a barn door entry to the en-suite bath, dual vanities, soaking tub, separate shower, & sizable walk-in closet. 3 additional bedrooms that share a full bath & utility room complete this home. Don't forget to check out the backyard offering a large patio & tons of grass space perfect for all your outdoor entertaining needs.

21. 2019-08-23
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2019-07-24
    price $230,658
23. 2019-07-24
    status Pending
24. 2019-02-26
    listed $228,633 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,823 · $735/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,823 · $735/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,471
• − Property taxes: −$8,823
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,838
• − Management: −$2,838
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$7,516
• Taxable loss: −$3,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$941
• After-tax cash flow: $974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $258,346 HARMLS
• 2022-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-20 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-07-24 Price Changed $230,658 HARMLS
• 2019-07-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-02-26 Listed $228,633 HARMLS

Property tax history

+36.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,823 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.