109 Cottage Ln · McCord Bend, MO 65624

$139,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · Other · 306 Days on market

Built 1996 1.00 ac lot $155/sqft · 31% below area Est $202k · 31% under · waterfront ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Cape Fair cabin offers a rare combination of Table Rock Lake frontage and freedom from typical subdivision restrictions. Situated on three lots totaling one acre, the property overlooks the James River arm and the Flat Creek Bridge. Cape Fair, MO (Stone County). Located just blocks from the popular Flat Creek Restaurant--easily accessible via a 2-minute golf cart ride. Approximately 40 minutes from the entertainment hub of Branson. The Cabin Features a bluff-side view and a deck pre-wired for a hot tub. One acre total across three lots. Includes a custom-built shop/storage building and producing peach tree. Technically lakefront (subject to Corp of Engineers regulations). While it doesn't include a private dock, several third-party boat slips are available nearby. Check out Cape Fair Marina for enternment, restaurant, boat rentals and more: https://capefairmarina.com.

Key facts

• Amazing lake views
• Wired for hot tub
• Lakefront cabin

Tags

• LAKEFRONT CABIN
• SPACIOUS DECK
• WIRED FOR HOT TUB
• AMAZING LAKE VIEWS
• CUSTOM BUILT GARAGE
• RV HOOK UP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (39.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.3% in McCord Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#875 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Galena R-II (rural): math 15% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #295 of 324 in MO (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Galena-Abesville Elem. (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #879 of 1,115 statewide, top 81%, 196 students, 70% FRL); Galena High (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #459 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 222 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 54% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $89k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $84,133 (39.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,009
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -30.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $14,550
• Equity at exit: $70,887

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $56,455
• Equity at exit: $115,905

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65624

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $305/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,035

Max offer price $112,921

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-113	+0% $-153	+5% $-192	+10% $-399
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-186	+0% $-153	+5% $-119	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-117	base $-153	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 305 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 300 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 297 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 294 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 293 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 290 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 287 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 286 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 285 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $139,900 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    This Cape Fair cabin offers a rare combination of Table Rock Lake frontage and freedom from typical subdivision restrictions. Situated on three lots totaling one acre, the property overlooks the James River arm and the Flat Creek Bridge. Cape Fair, MO (Stone County). Located just blocks from the popular Flat Creek Restaurant--easily accessible via a 2-minute golf cart ride. Approximately 40 minutes from the entertainment hub of Branson. The Cabin Features a bluff-side view and a deck pre-wired for a hot tub. One acre total across three lots. Includes a custom-built shop/storage building and producing peach tree. Technically lakefront (subject to Corp of Engineers regulations). While it doesn't include a private dock, several third-party boat slips are available nearby. Check out Cape Fair Marina for enternment, restaurant, boat rentals and more: https://capefairmarina.com.

18. 2026-03-07
    status Active 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    This Cape Fair cabin offers a rare combination of Table Rock Lake frontage and freedom from typical subdivision restrictions. Situated on three lots totaling one acre, the property overlooks the James River arm and the Flat Creek Bridge. Cape Fair, MO (Stone County). Located just blocks from the popular Flat Creek Restaurant--easily accessible via a 2-minute golf cart ride. Approximately 40 minutes from the entertainment hub of Branson. The Cabin Features a bluff-side view and a deck pre-wired for a hot tub. One acre total across three lots. Includes a custom-built shop/storage building and producing peach tree. Technically lakefront (subject to Corp of Engineers regulations). While it doesn't include a private dock, several third-party boat slips are available nearby. Check out Cape Fair Marina for enternment, restaurant, boat rentals and more: https://capefairmarina.com.

19. 2026-02-02
    status Active 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    This Cape Fair cabin offers a rare combination of Table Rock Lake frontage and freedom from typical subdivision restrictions. Situated on three lots totaling one acre, the property overlooks the James River arm and the Flat Creek Bridge. Cape Fair, MO (Stone County). Located just blocks from the popular Flat Creek Restaurant--easily accessible via a 2-minute golf cart ride. Approximately 40 minutes from the entertainment hub of Branson. The Cabin Features a bluff-side view and a deck pre-wired for a hot tub. One acre total across three lots. Includes a custom-built shop/storage building and producing peach tree. Technically lakefront (subject to Corp of Engineers regulations). While it doesn't include a private dock, several third-party boat slips are available nearby. Check out Cape Fair Marina for enternment, restaurant, boat rentals and more: https://capefairmarina.com.

20. 2025-10-24
    price $149,000 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    This Cape Fair cabin offers a rare combination of Table Rock Lake frontage and freedom from typical subdivision restrictions. Situated on three lots totaling one acre, the property overlooks the James River arm and the Flat Creek Bridge. Cape Fair, MO (Stone County). Located just blocks from the popular Flat Creek Restaurant--easily accessible via a 2-minute golf cart ride. Approximately 40 minutes from the entertainment hub of Branson. The Cabin Features a bluff-side view and a deck pre-wired for a hot tub. One acre total across three lots. Includes a custom-built shop/storage building and producing peach tree. Technically lakefront (subject to Corp of Engineers regulations). While it doesn't include a private dock, several third-party boat slips are available nearby. Check out Cape Fair Marina for enternment, restaurant, boat rentals and more: https://capefairmarina.com.

21. 2025-08-28
    price $189,000 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    This Cape Fair cabin offers a rare combination of Table Rock Lake frontage and freedom from typical subdivision restrictions. Situated on three lots totaling one acre, the property overlooks the James River arm and the Flat Creek Bridge. Cape Fair, MO (Stone County). Located just blocks from the popular Flat Creek Restaurant--easily accessible via a 2-minute golf cart ride. Approximately 40 minutes from the entertainment hub of Branson. The Cabin Features a bluff-side view and a deck pre-wired for a hot tub. One acre total across three lots. Includes a custom-built shop/storage building and producing peach tree. Technically lakefront (subject to Corp of Engineers regulations). While it doesn't include a private dock, several third-party boat slips are available nearby. Check out Cape Fair Marina for enternment, restaurant, boat rentals and more: https://capefairmarina.com.

22. 2025-08-11
    price $199,000 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    This Cape Fair cabin offers a rare combination of Table Rock Lake frontage and freedom from typical subdivision restrictions. Situated on three lots totaling one acre, the property overlooks the James River arm and the Flat Creek Bridge. Cape Fair, MO (Stone County). Located just blocks from the popular Flat Creek Restaurant--easily accessible via a 2-minute golf cart ride. Approximately 40 minutes from the entertainment hub of Branson. The Cabin Features a bluff-side view and a deck pre-wired for a hot tub. One acre total across three lots. Includes a custom-built shop/storage building and producing peach tree. Technically lakefront (subject to Corp of Engineers regulations). While it doesn't include a private dock, several third-party boat slips are available nearby. Check out Cape Fair Marina for enternment, restaurant, boat rentals and more: https://capefairmarina.com.

23. 2025-07-25
    listed $229,000 Active 885-char remark

    Show marketing remark (885 chars)

    This Cape Fair cabin offers a rare combination of Table Rock Lake frontage and freedom from typical subdivision restrictions. Situated on three lots totaling one acre, the property overlooks the James River arm and the Flat Creek Bridge. Cape Fair, MO (Stone County). Located just blocks from the popular Flat Creek Restaurant--easily accessible via a 2-minute golf cart ride. Approximately 40 minutes from the entertainment hub of Branson. The Cabin Features a bluff-side view and a deck pre-wired for a hot tub. One acre total across three lots. Includes a custom-built shop/storage building and producing peach tree. Technically lakefront (subject to Corp of Engineers regulations). While it doesn't include a private dock, several third-party boat slips are available nearby. Check out Cape Fair Marina for enternment, restaurant, boat rentals and more: https://capefairmarina.com.

24. 1995-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $305 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,052/yr (+$88/mo · 344.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$305
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$808
• − Management: −$808
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$4,430
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,063
• After-tax cash flow: $-769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galena R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912630
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,014
• Composite: 20.01/100
• National rank: #8663
• State rank: #295 of 324 in MO

Livability — McCord Bend

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #875
• US rank: #25259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,722

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.99%
• Current HPI: 209.4136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-38.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $139,900 SOMO
• 2026-03-07 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $149,000 SOMO
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $189,000 SOMO
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $199,000 SOMO
• 2025-07-25 Listed $229,000 SOMO
• 1995-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $305 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.