Is 13318 Prado Ridge Ln in Rosharon, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.7% cap rate and $-379/mo modeled cash flow at a $254,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 13318 Prado Ridge Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 4.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,096/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 32.41

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
1% rule +2.5/10.0
DSCR +1.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$254,990

13318 Prado Ridge Ln · Rosharon, TX 77583

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,903 sqft lot 2-car garage $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully designed home in the Creekhaven community, conveniently located just off Highway 288 with easy access to nearby shopping, dining, and commuting routes. Thoughtfully crafted for both comfort and functionality, this home features an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas—perfect for entertaining guests or enjoying everyday life. The spacious kitchen overlooks the heart of the home and offers plenty of room for gathering and hosting. Tucked away for added privacy, the primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and well-appointed bath.

Key facts

Spacious kitchen
Primary suite
Massive backyard

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (11.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (17.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $210k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $209,564 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.75% ✗
Cap rate: 4.67%
Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
DSCR: 0.74
GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $279,970
List price: $254,990
Delta: -7.14%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13327 Padre Bay Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+2%)	1mo	$306,085	$205	92
13327 Prado Ridge Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-2%)	3mo	$282,935	$198	92
13219 Padre Bay Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+1%)	2mo	$299,990	$203	91
2806 Rockwood Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+1%)	7mo	$284,990	$193	90
2915 Copper Falls Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-2%)	6mo	$279,821	$196	88
13203 Hayden Peak Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+3%)	5mo	$291,990	$195	86
13235 Padre Bay Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+1%)	6mo	$274,990	$186	86
2910 Rockwood Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+8%)	1mo	$279,990	$177	82
13219 Hayden Peak Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+12%)	4mo	$318,200	$194	73
13215 Padre Bay Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,592 (+9%)	4mo	$284,990	$179	73
13207 Hayden Peak Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+12%)	4mo	$317,205	$193	72
12915 Green Valley Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	4mo	$325,000	$203	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.3%
Equity multiple: 0.05×
Total profit: $-74,692
Equity at exit: $41,744

10-year hold

IRR: -45.5%
Equity multiple: -0.48×
Total profit: $-116,285
Equity at exit: $24,207

Cash invested: $78,391 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 35 active · 11 under contract
Months of supply: 16.2 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $294,990 ($183/sqft)
Median days on market: 32 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +4.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY: 0.4%
Active inventory: 1445
Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,096 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
Insurance: −$117
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
Net cashflow: $-379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,576

Max offer price $225,091

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-186	-5% $-283	+0% $-379	+5% $-476	+10% $-573
Rent	-10% $-545	-5% $-462	+0% $-379	+5% $-296	+10% $-214
Rate	-1.0pp $-238	-0.5pp $-308	base $-379	+0.5pp $-452	+1.0pp $-526

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $69,992
Closing costs: $8,399
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13023 Pleasant Valley Dr Rosharon, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	43d	1	0.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: First right of refusal and lender approval required disclosuresMunicipal Utility District disclosure
HOA & community: Association membership required (TBD)Annual association fee of $1,200Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Security: Prewired for securitySecurity system ownedSmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionEast-facing
Construction: Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2026Built by Coventry Homes
Exterior features: Covered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardSubdivision settingConcrete road surface

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeGas ovenOvenMicrowaveDisposalENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Granite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantrySeparate shower and tub/showerCeiling fan(s)Programmable thermostatLow emissivity windows
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $254,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $254,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $254,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $254,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $254,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-31

pricedays on market $254,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $259,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $259,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $259,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $259,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $259,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $259,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $259,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $259,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $259,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $259,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $259,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $259,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $259,990 Active 8 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $259,990 Active 7 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $259,990 Active 6 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $259,990 Active 5 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $259,990 Active 4 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $259,990 Active 3 DOM
2026-07-07

days on marketlisting id $259,990 Active 1 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $259,990 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $259,990 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $259,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $259,990 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $259,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $259,990 Active 100 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $259,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $259,990 Active 98 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $259,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $259,990 Active 96 DOM
2026-06-26

pricedays on market $259,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $264,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $264,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $264,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $264,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $264,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $264,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $264,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $264,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $264,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $264,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $264,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $264,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $264,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $264,990 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,148
− Mortgage interest: −$15,683
− Property taxes: −$4,200
− Insurance: −$1,400
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
− Management: −$2,012
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$8,145
Taxable loss: −$9,503

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,281
After-tax cash flow: $-2,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,300–$21,900 screening

This beautifully designed home in the Creekhaven community is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features an open-concept layout, modern kitchen, and well-maintained exterior. The property has potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic upgrades and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Alvin ISD
NCES district ID: 4808090
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $66,740
Composite: 38.96/100
National rank: #4080
State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

Score: 65/100
State rank: #701
US rank: #13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population: 52,747
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 52,747
Household income: $119,287
Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
Current HPI: 198.6559
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-07-06 Listed $259,990 HARMLS
2026-07-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-06-25 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
2026-05-13 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
2026-03-23 Listed $281,325 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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