5401 E 1st Ave · Farmington, NM 87402

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1959 0.32 ac lot $153/sqft · 36% below area Est $545k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one-owner, spacious 2,300 sq ft home tucked into a quiet cul-de-sac on an impressive . 31-acre irrigated city lot, offering space, comfort, and a central location close to shopping, dining, and everyday services. This home offers 3-bedrooms 2-full baths with the potential of a 4th bedroom or office.

Key facts

• Large den
• Cul-de-sac
• Irrigated lot

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• IRRIGATED LOT
• FORCED-AIR NATURAL GAS HEAT
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• LARGE DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#38 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Farmington Municipal Schools (urban): math 23% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #23 of 95 in NM (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $225,867 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.38%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $545,000
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -48.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-35,478
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-18,778
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87402

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4501 Arctic St Farmington, NM	4.0	2.5	1930	$2,500	$1.30	44d	1	0.68mi
5542 Cypress St Farmington, NM	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,400	$1.88	44d	1	0.80mi
5200 Villa View Dr Unit 16C Farmington, NM	2.0	2.5	1272	$1,600	$1.26	44d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $279,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-01-19
    listed $289,900 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    This one-owner, spacious 2,300 sq ft home tucked into a quiet cul-de-sac on an impressive . 31-acre irrigated city lot, offering space, comfort, and a central location close to shopping, dining, and everyday services. This home offers 3-bedrooms 2-full baths with the potential of a 4th bedroom or office.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $598 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,232 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,634/yr (+$136/mo · 273.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$2,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$713
• After-tax cash flow: $2,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500990
• Math proficiency: 23% —
• Reading proficiency: 43% —
• Median HH income: $51,365
• Composite: 31.5/100
• National rank: #11178
• State rank: #23 of 95 in NM

Livability — Farmington

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #11926

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Farmington, NM
• City population: 45,229
• Population (ZIP): 10,997

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Native American 17% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -117.39%
• Current HPI: 207.275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $289,900 SJCMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $598 · -16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.