Ash Plan · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$253,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,198 sqft · SingleFamily · 446 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The delightful Ash floor plan is a sprawling, two-story design that is full of character. The exterior of the home is just as beautiful as the interior since the home will have a two-tone paint selection, and an exclusive landscaping package including shrubs, a caliper oak tree, and a yard that is fully sodded. Entering from your front porch, you are greeted by an elegant foyer with vinyl plank flooring that your two-car garage lies beside. Across the foyer is your convenient powder bathroom featuring a white pedestal sink and decorative mirror that flows right into your open-concept family room. The massive family room is perfect for entertaining guests and is boasting ample amount of space. The smell of fresh cookies baking can be experienced from the family room, since the kitchen is opened up facing the living area. The expansive kitchen area is completed with granite countertops, beautiful flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances. You will love having the ability to install a kitchen island in the center of the kitchen, if you are needing more counter space. Speaking of more space, your oversized walk-in pantry will come in handy when you need to store all your food, spices, and dog treats. Integrating with your kitchen is your welcoming formal dining space with entry to your backyard in the corner of the room. Giving your backyard added value, you have the option of including a sizable covered patio! Adjacent to your formal. ..

Key facts

• Powder bathroom
• Fully sodded yard
• Granite countertops

Tags

• EXCLUSIVE LANDSCAPING PACKAGE
• FULLY SODDED YARD
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• POWDER BATHROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $253,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,399.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-500 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,907 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.83%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,399
• List price: $253,990
• Delta: -18.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9203 White Tail Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,287 (+4%)	3mo	$469,000	$205	61
9708 Sunny Valley Rd	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,109 (-4%)	3mo	$263,000	$125	60
4618 Axis Trl	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,396 (+9%)	3mo	$515,000	$215	58
9719 Caney Bend Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-8%)	1mo	$279,900	$139	53
9171 Whitetail Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,444 (+11%)	4mo	$459,900	$188	53
14435 Elmfield Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-8%)	2mo	$253,900	$126	51
14419 Elmfield Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-8%)	3mo	$259,900	$129	51
14223 Spring Valley Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-9%)	6mo	$264,900	$132	50
14431 Elmfield Ln	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+11%)	3mo	$299,900	$123	43
14427 Elmfield Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (-12%)	1mo	$249,900	$129	41
14423 Elmfield Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,869 (-15%)	2mo	$242,900	$130	36
9530 Shady Trail Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (+11%)	6mo	$288,900	$118	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-88,757
• Equity at exit: $46,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-142,023
• Equity at exit: $27,097

Cash invested: $87,752 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,643
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,701/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,742

Max offer price $241,097

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-283	-5% $-391	+0% $-500	+5% $-608	+10% $-716
Rent	-10% $-666	-5% $-583	+0% $-500	+5% $-416	+10% $-333
Rate	-1.0pp $-342	-0.5pp $-420	base $-500	+0.5pp $-581	+1.0pp $-663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,350
• Closing costs: $9,402
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9302 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1628	$1,775	$1.09	45d	1	0.11mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$2,135	$1.33	0d	14	0.12mi
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,984	$1.11	0d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $253,990 Active 446 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $253,990 Active 443 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $253,990 Active 442 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $253,990 Active 441 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $253,990 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $253,990 Active 438 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $253,990 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $253,990 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $253,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $253,990 Active 429 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $253,990 Active 428 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $253,990 Active 427 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $253,990 Active 426 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $253,990 Active 425 DOM
15. 2025-04-01
    listed $253,990 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The delightful Ash floor plan is a sprawling, two-story design that is full of character. The exterior of the home is just as beautiful as the interior since the home will have a two-tone paint selection, and an exclusive landscaping package including shrubs, a caliper oak tree, and a yard that is fully sodded. Entering from your front porch, you are greeted by an elegant foyer with vinyl plank flooring that your two-car garage lies beside. Across the foyer is your convenient powder bathroom featuring a white pedestal sink and decorative mirror that flows right into your open-concept family room. The massive family room is perfect for entertaining guests and is boasting ample amount of space. The smell of fresh cookies baking can be experienced from the family room, since the kitchen is opened up facing the living area. The expansive kitchen area is completed with granite countertops, beautiful flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances. You will love having the ability to install a kitchen island in the center of the kitchen, if you are needing more counter space. Speaking of more space, your oversized walk-in pantry will come in handy when you need to store all your food, spices, and dog treats. Integrating with your kitchen is your welcoming formal dining space with entry to your backyard in the corner of the room. Giving your backyard added value, you have the option of including a sizable covered patio! Adjacent to your formal. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,555
• − Property taxes: −$4,701
• − Insurance: −$1,567
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − Depreciation: −$9,117
• Taxable loss: −$11,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,803
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Ash Plan home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and is move-in ready with minor updates that would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $253,990 Zillow