3408 Woodlake Dr · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 162 Days on market

Built 2024 4,792 sqft lot $119/sqft · 26% below area Est $186k · 22% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the Granbury lake life in this new home, located less than a mile from the community boat ramp! This home offers a spacious, open floor plan, double vanities in the master bath, a tub-shower combo in both bathrooms and generously sized closets. This property features a brand new septic system, new skirting, new kitchen appliances, new flooring, new HVAC, a new roof and brand new cedar shutters! All major components have been recently installed for worry-free living. This home qualifies for all loan types. Contact the agent for buyer incentives.

Key facts

• Community boat ramp
• New hvac
• New flooring

Tags

• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW HVAC
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $145k implies a 1970% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.35%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,626
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -21.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3425 Evergreen Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-2%)	2mo	$162,000	$136	92
3210 Robinhood Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	1mo	$144,900	$113	69
3011 Mistletoe St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	6mo	$139,400	$115	65
4321 Terri Lee Ln	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (+14%)	19mo	$189,000	$136	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-162
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $21,165
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,686/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	1d	1	0.27mi
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	1d	1	0.48mi
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	43d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $144,900 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $144,900 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Enjoy the Granbury lake life in this new home, located less than a mile from the community boat ramp! This home offers a spacious, open floor plan, double vanities in the master bath, a tub-shower combo in both bathrooms and generously sized closets. This property features a brand new septic system, new skirting, new kitchen appliances, new flooring, new HVAC, a new roof and brand new cedar shutters! All major components have been recently installed for worry-free living. This home qualifies for all loan types. Contact the agent for buyer incentives.

15. 2026-02-20
    price $149,900 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Enjoy the Granbury lake life in this new home, located less than a mile from the community boat ramp! This home offers a spacious, open floor plan, double vanities in the master bath, a tub-shower combo in both bathrooms and generously sized closets. This property features a brand new septic system, new skirting, new kitchen appliances, new flooring, new HVAC, a new roof and brand new cedar shutters! All major components have been recently installed for worry-free living. This home qualifies for all loan types. Contact the agent for buyer incentives.

16. 2025-12-31
    listed $159,900 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Enjoy the Granbury lake life in this new home, located less than a mile from the community boat ramp! This home offers a spacious, open floor plan, double vanities in the master bath, a tub-shower combo in both bathrooms and generously sized closets. This property features a brand new septic system, new skirting, new kitchen appliances, new flooring, new HVAC, a new roof and brand new cedar shutters! All major components have been recently installed for worry-free living. This home qualifies for all loan types. Contact the agent for buyer incentives.

17. 2025-10-20
    historical
18. 2025-09-30
    status Active
19. 2025-08-07
    listed $152,000 Active
20. 2025-05-03
    historical
21. 2025-04-28
    price $164,900
22. 2025-04-23
    listed $174,900 Active
23. 2025-04-23
    historical
24. 2025-04-17
    listed $174,900 Active
25. 2025-04-16
    historical
26. 2025-03-14
    listed $174,900 Active
27. 2022-03-28
    soldstatus $7,000
28. 1980-11-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,686 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$966/yr (+$81/mo · 57.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,686
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $2,845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$683
• After-tax cash flow: $4,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1970.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $144,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-30 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $152,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $164,900 NTREIS
• 2025-04-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2025-04-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2022-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records
• 1980-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+40.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,686 · +1305.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.