4710 Swann Ln · Kirby, TX 78219

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 958 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1982 6,342 sqft lot $103/sqft · 41% below area Est $167k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your next project! Located in the heart of Kirby, offering a functional and efficient layout ideal for comfortable living. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. The home sits on a well-sized lot with mature surroundings and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Interior highlights include a practical floor plan, natural light throughout, and easy-maintenance living. Conveniently located near major highways, schools, shopping, and dining with quick access to Loop 410 and I-35, making commuting throughout San Antonio seamless. Schedule your showing now.

Key facts

• 6,342 sq ft lot
• Built 1982
• Listed 66 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.5% in Kirby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#761 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,941
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -40.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4866 Aspen Wood	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,052 (+10%)	6mo	$169,900	$162	64
5014 Cinderella	0.62mi	3/1.5 (+1)	958 (0%)	8mo	$135,000	$141	58
2501 Telegraph	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	923 (-4%)	12mo	$205,000	$222	55
5210 Foxcross	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	963 (+0%)	3mo	$175,000	$182	55
5130 Coral Mist	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	931 (-3%)	13mo	$169,900	$182	45
4818 Swann Ln	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,089 (+14%)	21mo	$124,999	$115	43
4810 Borchers Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,089 (+14%)	24mo	$175,000	$161	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.73% appreciation · 7.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $24,312
• Equity at exit: $43,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $89,482
• Equity at exit: $65,143

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78219

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,710/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,101

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $145	+0% $117	+5% $89	+10% $61
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $68	+0% $117	+5% $166	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $142	base $117	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4819 Lunar San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,289	$1.12	5d	1	0.13mi
4619 Dietrich Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	775	$849	$1.10	44d	1	0.78mi
5405 Borchers Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,295	$1.26	3d	1	0.89mi
2644 Ackerman Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,048	$1.23	44d	1	1.12mi
3855 N PanAm Expy San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	530	$1,512	$2.85	44d	2	1.27mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $99,000 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Your next project! Located in the heart of Kirby, offering a functional and efficient layout ideal for comfortable living. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. The home sits on a well-sized lot with mature surroundings and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Interior highlights include a practical floor plan, natural light throughout, and easy-maintenance living. Conveniently located near major highways, schools, shopping, and dining with quick access to Loop 410 and I-35, making commuting throughout San Antonio seamless. Schedule your showing now.

16. 2026-04-15
    listed $110,000 Active 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Your next project! Located in the heart of Kirby, offering a functional and efficient layout ideal for comfortable living. This property features 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. The home sits on a well-sized lot with mature surroundings and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Interior highlights include a practical floor plan, natural light throughout, and easy-maintenance living. Conveniently located near major highways, schools, shopping, and dining with quick access to Loop 410 and I-35, making commuting throughout San Antonio seamless. Schedule your showing now.

17. 2016-04-12
    soldstatus
18. 2015-07-15
    soldstatus
19. 2015-05-04
    soldstatus
20. 2008-12-01
    historical
21. 2008-10-15
    listed $45,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,710 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,710 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$3,710
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$42
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10
• After-tax cash flow: $1,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kirby

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #761
• US rank: #13943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kirby, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,924
• Household income: $52,094
• Rent vs Own: 46.1% rent · 53.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 852.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% Two or more races 27% Black 26% White 16% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.73%
• Current HPI: 328.5107
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.72%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+115.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2016-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-12-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2008-10-15 Listed $45,900 LERA

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,710 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.