99 Lafayette 215 Rd · Taylor, AR 71861

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,174 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2000 1.21 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home is located in a rural area less than a half mile from Lake Erling and Cummins Camp marina which has a boat ramp and more. Home has porches all around and a large storage-workshop.

Key facts

• Lake erling
• Cummins camp marina
• Porches

Tags

• LAKE ERLING
• CUMMINS CAMP MARINA
• BOAT RAMP
• PORCHES
• STORAGE-WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#302 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $224 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Lafayette County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.75%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,772
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
99 Lafayette 215 Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,199 (+2%)	1mo	$119,000	$99	95
—	1.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-6%)	13mo	$250,000	$227	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $30,760
• Equity at exit: $35,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $86,402
• Equity at exit: $43,795

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71861

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $603	-5% $562	+0% $521	+5% $479	+10% $438
Rent	-10% $386	-5% $453	+0% $521	+5% $588	+10% $655
Rate	-1.0pp $581	-0.5pp $551	base $521	+0.5pp $490	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Lafayette Unit NA Taylor, AR	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	22d	1	0.53mi
11 Lafayette Unit 5303 Taylor, AR	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	15d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-16
   listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $4,628
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,111
• After-tax cash flow: $5,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Taylor

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #20529

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,330

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,990 people
• By 2030: 5,452 · -9.0%
• By 2040: 4,482 · -25.2%
• By 2050: 3,625 · -39.5%
• By 2075: 2,352 · -60.7%
• By 2100: 1,830 · -69.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 12% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.3) · D 30.0% · R 68.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: -19.0pp · 2024: -38.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.3 2020: R+34.3 2016: R+25.5 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.19%
• Current HPI: 261.3192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $119,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2017): $70 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.