3950 Coburg Rd #3 · Eugene, OR 97408

$31,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1966 $57/sqft · 41% above area Est $35k · 9% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ Park. This cute home is located in a desirable area, Not far away from beautiful Armitage Park — perfect for evening walks. Water, sewer, and garbage are included, making this home affordable. The park also offers a community recreation room that can be reserved for gatherings and parties. Park approval required.

Key facts

• Built 1966
• Listed 87 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 58.0% vs local median 2.8% in Eugene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#52 in OR, #1,587 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, cost of living C-, crime D-.
• Eugene SD 4J (urban): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #10 of 58 in OR (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $218 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $945 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $29,610 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 184.49%
• DSCR: 9.21
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $34,622
• List price: $31,500
• Delta: -9.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3950 Coburg Rd #11	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	492 (-10%)	21mo	$20,000	$41	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.44×
• Total profit: $83,253
• Equity at exit: $4,697

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.77×
• Total profit: $192,040
• Equity at exit: $2,724

Cash invested: $8,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97408

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$165
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $1,356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $276

Max offer price $31,500

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,875
• Closing costs: $945
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2459 Lakeview Dr Eugene, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	966	$1,790	$1.85	13d	24	1.00mi
2733 Shadow View Dr Eugene, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,715	$3.21	13d	11	1.18mi
2847 Tennyson Ave Eugene, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	902	$2,178	$2.41	13d	8	1.23mi
2940 Crescent Ave Eugene, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	849	$1,930	$2.27	13d	14	1.25mi
89325 Old Coburg Rd Unit 123 Eugene, OR	1.0	1.0	743	$1,400	$1.88	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $31,500 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $31,500 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $31,500 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $31,500 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $31,500 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $31,500 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $31,500 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $31,500 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $31,500 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $31,500 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $31,500 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $31,500 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $31,500 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $31,500 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $31,500 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $31,500 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-05-02
    price $31,500 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    55+ Park. This cute home is located in a desirable area, Not far away from beautiful Armitage Park — perfect for evening walks. Water, sewer, and garbage are included, making this home affordable. The park also offers a community recreation room that can be reserved for gatherings and parties. Park approval required.

18. 2026-03-23
    listed $34,900 Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    55+ Park. This cute home is located in a desirable area, Not far away from beautiful Armitage Park — perfect for evening walks. Water, sewer, and garbage are included, making this home affordable. The park also offers a community recreation room that can be reserved for gatherings and parties. Park approval required.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,764
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$158
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$916
• Taxable income: $16,769
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,024
• After-tax cash flow: $12,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eugene SD 4J
• NCES district ID: 4104740
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,688
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3302
• State rank: #10 of 58 in OR

Livability — Eugene

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #1587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lane County · 310,476 people
• City population: 215,212
• Metro: Eugene-Springfield, OR
• Population (ZIP): 15,420
• Household income: $104,945
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.97%
• Current HPI: 286.5805
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: Eugene-Springfield, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $31,500 RMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $34,900 RMLS

Property tax history

-32.2%/yr

Latest (2015): $6 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.