11675 Billings Rd · Grayhawk, MO 63670

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Other public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1969 0.26 ac lot $78/sqft · 40% below area $76/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the private, gated Grayhawk lake community, this wooded cabin retreat offers access to two 100-acre lakes, a community in-ground pool, and miles of quiet roads perfect for walking, biking, and enjoying nature. Residents enjoy fishing, boating, and abundant wildlife in one of the area's most scenic settings. The 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom cabin sits on a manageable lot surrounded by trees and features covered porches, rustic cabin charm, and a partially finished walk-out basement providing additional living or recreation space. The home offers a great opportunity for someone looking to personalize a property while enjoying the benefits of an established lake community. Recent improvements include hard board siding and a roof approximately three years old. The existing septic system may be convertible to a holding tank, and the water meter and service line will need to be reestablished—offering the next owner the opportunity to complete updates and build equity. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway, vacation property, or full-time residence in a peaceful lake setting, this property offers privacy, amenities, and strong potential within the Grayhawk community.

Key facts

• Covered porches
• Fishing and boating
• Access to two lakes

Tags

• ACCESS TO TWO LAKES
• COMMUNITY IN-GROUND POOL
• FISHING AND BOATING
• WOODED CABIN RETREAT
• COVERED PORCHES
• HARD BOARD SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($972 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#677 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ste. Genevieve County R-II (town): math 46% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #59 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Ste. Genevieve County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ste. Genevieve County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $77,259 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.41%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,907
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -51.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-3,122
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $11,041
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63670

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $535/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$76
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $761

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $76 · $912/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $84,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,900 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $84,900 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $84,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    price $95,000 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Located in the private, gated Grayhawk lake community, this wooded cabin retreat offers access to two 100-acre lakes, a community in-ground pool, and miles of quiet roads perfect for walking, biking, and enjoying nature. Residents enjoy fishing, boating, and abundant wildlife in one of the area's most scenic settings. The 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom cabin sits on a manageable lot surrounded by trees and features covered porches, rustic cabin charm, and a partially finished walk-out basement providing additional living or recreation space. The home offers a great opportunity for someone looking to personalize a property while enjoying the benefits of an established lake community. Recent improvements include hard board siding and a roof approximately three years old. The existing septic system may be convertible to a holding tank, and the water meter and service line will need to be reestablished—offering the next owner the opportunity to complete updates and build equity. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway, vacation property, or full-time residence in a peaceful lake setting, this property offers privacy, amenities, and strong potential within the Grayhawk community.

16. 2026-03-10
    listed $109,900 Active 1200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1200 chars)

    Located in the private, gated Grayhawk lake community, this wooded cabin retreat offers access to two 100-acre lakes, a community in-ground pool, and miles of quiet roads perfect for walking, biking, and enjoying nature. Residents enjoy fishing, boating, and abundant wildlife in one of the area's most scenic settings. The 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom cabin sits on a manageable lot surrounded by trees and features covered porches, rustic cabin charm, and a partially finished walk-out basement providing additional living or recreation space. The home offers a great opportunity for someone looking to personalize a property while enjoying the benefits of an established lake community. Recent improvements include hard board siding and a roof approximately three years old. The existing septic system may be convertible to a holding tank, and the water meter and service line will need to be reestablished—offering the next owner the opportunity to complete updates and build equity. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway, vacation property, or full-time residence in a peaceful lake setting, this property offers privacy, amenities, and strong potential within the Grayhawk community.

17. 2025-11-03
    price $110,000
18. 2025-09-22
    price $120,000
19. 2025-09-17
    price $125,000
20. 2025-09-03
    price $134,000
21. 2025-07-15
    listed $139,900 Active
22. 2025-07-10
    historical
23. 2014-12-15
    soldstatus
24. 2013-08-09
    soldstatus
25. 2013-06-06
    listed $8,910

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $535 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 53.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$535
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$933
• − Management: −$933
• − HOA: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $700
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$168
• After-tax cash flow: $1,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ste. Genevieve County R-II
• NCES district ID: 2929370
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,013
• Composite: 40.83/100
• National rank: #3632
• State rank: #59 of 324 in MO

Livability — Grayhawk

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #677
• US rank: #22441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grayhawk, MO
• Population (ZIP): 12,294

Population outlook (Ste. Genevieve County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,453 people
• By 2030: 17,119 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 16,361 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 15,719 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 14,849 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 13,504 · -22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ste. Genevieve

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.0) · D 26.9% · R 71.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -59.2pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -45.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.0 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+3.0 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.70%
• Current HPI: 193.0646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+966.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $95,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $110,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $134,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Listed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-09 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-06 Listed $8,910 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $535 · +20.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.