Coolidge Plan · Cove, TX 77523

$287,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,029 sqft · SingleFamily · 604 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The two-story Coolidge design blends tradition with innovation. A central great room and adjacent formal dining room give families space to host large gatherings, and the first-floor guest suite with a full bath is a rare find for this square footage. The upstairs is perfect for family movie or game nights. This plan is made for active, growing families.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Full bath
• Great room

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR GUEST SUITE
• FULL BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $287,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,440.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $288k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 79d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 604 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $239,144 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 604 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,440
• List price: $287,990
• Delta: -9.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6714 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-0%)	3mo	$325,990	$161	83
6722 Camila St	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,937 (-4%)	1mo	$319,350	$165	81
6718 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,080 (+2%)	2mo	$345,990	$166	80
102 Pacific Way	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,029 (0%)	4mo	$314,530	$155	69
6814 Bens Lndg	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,850 (-9%)	2mo	$269,790	$146	65
603 Louis Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-12%)	4mo	$269,210	$151	61
7114 Thomas James Ct	0.52mi	4/2.5	1,850 (-9%)	1mo	$307,010	$166	58
6822 Bens Lndg	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,777 (-12%)	3mo	$295,100	$166	54
6710 Pebble Bluff Ct	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,727 (-15%)	4mo	$314,990	$182	54
14727 Sweet Water Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,845 (-9%)	0mo	$285,000	$154	50
14407 Sweet Water Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,251 (+11%)	3mo	$342,900	$152	46
5926 Golden Cove Rd	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,326 (+15%)	4mo	$269,000	$116	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-70,987
• Equity at exit: $47,630

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-83,575
• Equity at exit: $27,619

Cash invested: $89,443 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 91 active · 52 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.9 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,280 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1127
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,391 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,792/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,794

Max offer price $273,377

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-98	-5% $-208	+0% $-318	+5% $-429	+10% $-539
Rent	-10% $-507	-5% $-413	+0% $-318	+5% $-224	+10% $-129
Rate	-1.0pp $-157	-0.5pp $-237	base $-318	+0.5pp $-401	+1.0pp $-485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,860
• Closing costs: $9,583
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	184d	1	0.65mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	142d	1	0.66mi
14415 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2428	$2,525	$1.04	45d	1	0.69mi
5914 Golden Cove Rd Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	2326	$2,245	$0.97	5d	1	0.71mi
5914 Treasure Cove Rd Cove, TX	3.0	3.0	2042	$1,645	$0.81	55d	1	0.74mi
15114 Diamond Way Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,671	$1.11	119d	1	0.85mi
15214 Harlin Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2139	$2,400	$1.12	121d	1	0.86mi
131 Brazos Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,211	$1.19	99d	1	0.89mi
5719 Rainbow Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,479	$1.05	10d	1	0.92mi
15218 Arnold Cove, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,300	$1.31	83d	1	0.96mi
5823 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,916	$1.36	74d	1	0.99mi
5727 Littoral Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$2,036	$1.08	85d	1	1.04mi
8015 Distant Harbor Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,801	$1.27	99d	1	1.06mi
8003 Crustacean Rd Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	2326	$1,989	$0.86	10d	1	1.09mi
8411 Hannah Rd Cove, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,236	$0.96	85d	1	1.12mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$1,986	$0.97	21d	1	1.13mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Cove, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$1,945	$0.95	1d	1	1.13mi
14143 Medina Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,495	$1.19	78d	1	1.19mi
14114 Little River Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	3.0	2771	$2,645	$0.95	127d	1	1.22mi
5142 Cotton Lake Rd Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	9d	1	1.28mi
5142 Cotton Lake Rd Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	53d	1	1.28mi
50A Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	5.0	2.0	2432	$1,975	$0.81	10d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $287,990 Active 604 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $287,990 Active 603 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $287,990 Active 602 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $287,990 Active 601 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $287,990 Active 600 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $287,990 Active 598 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $287,990 Active 597 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $287,990 Active 596 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $287,990 Active 595 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $287,990 Active 594 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $287,990 Active 593 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $287,990 Active 592 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $287,990 Active 591 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $287,990 Active 590 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $287,990 Active 589 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $287,990 Active 588 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $287,990 Active 587 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $287,990 Active 586 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $287,990 Active 585 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $287,990 Active 584 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $287,990 Active 583 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $287,990 Active 582 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $287,990 Active 581 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $287,990 Active 580 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $287,990 Active 579 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $287,990 Active 578 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $287,990 Active 577 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $287,990 Active 576 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $287,990 Active 575 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $287,990 Active 574 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $287,990 Active 573 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $287,990 Active 572 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $287,990 Active 571 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $287,990 Active 570 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $287,990 Active 569 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $287,990 Active 568 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $287,990 Active 567 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $287,990 Active 566 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $287,990 Active 565 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $287,990 Active 564 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $287,990 Active 563 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $287,990 Active 562 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $287,990 Active 561 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $287,990 Active 560 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $287,990 Active 559 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $287,990 Active 558 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $287,990 Active 557 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $287,990 Active 556 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $287,990 Active 555 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $287,990 Active 554 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,894
• − Property taxes: −$4,792
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,296
• − Management: −$2,296
• − Depreciation: −$9,293
• Taxable loss: −$9,469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,273
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout, modern finishes, and a well-maintained exterior, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $287,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $282,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-15 Listed $292,990 Zillow