Gray Plan · Boiling Spring Lakes, NC 28461

$245,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,422 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Gray is a beautifully designed new construction single-story home offering 1,422 square feet of bright, open-concept living. This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan is designed for the way you live today, with a seamless connection between the kitchen, dining area, and spacious family room that makes everyday living and entertaining feel easy and natural. At the center of the home, the kitchen features a large island that brings people together, whether you're cooking dinner, sharing a meal, or catching up with friends. A conveniently located laundry room just off the 2-car garage adds everyday ease right where you need it.

Key facts

• New construction
• Laundry room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• LARGE ISLAND
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $245,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $264,198.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.1% in Boiling Spring Lakes — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#542 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bolivia Elementary (math 50% / reading 43%, grade D-, #542 of 1,410 statewide, top 39%, 496 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick Middle (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 572 students, 100% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1204 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,451 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.44%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,198
• List price: $245,990
• Delta: -6.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
184 Elm Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-6%)	1mo	$312,000	$233	87
1840 Raeford Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+4%)	3mo	$325,000	$221	71
286 Elm St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-12%)	1mo	$257,000	$205	69
324 Ash Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,531 (+8%)	1mo	$299,900	$196	69
32 S High Point Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+5%)	4mo	$314,000	$210	59
1469 E Boiling Spring Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-13%)	4mo	$239,000	$194	58
2021 Albemarle Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,611 (+13%)	2mo	$320,000	$199	55
1281 Spring Lake Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+11%)	1mo	$440,000	$278	54
1820 Raeford Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,229 (-14%)	4mo	$296,500	$241	54
2030 Gastonia Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+14%)	2mo	$365,000	$226	54
1221 Maple Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-8%)	2mo	$305,000	$234	54
2240 W Lake Keziah Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-8%)	4mo	$287,000	$218	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-64,592
• Equity at exit: $39,393

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-95,717
• Equity at exit: $22,843

Cash invested: $73,976 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.2 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,450 ($213/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -12.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28461

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 1204
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,385
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,963/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,311

Max offer price $224,571

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-183	+0% $-274	+5% $-365	+10% $-456
Rent	-10% $-429	-5% $-351	+0% $-274	+5% $-196	+10% $-119
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-207	base $-274	+0.5pp $-342	+1.0pp $-412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,050
• Closing costs: $7,926
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-25
   days on market $245,990 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-23
   days on market $245,990 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-22
   days on market $245,990 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,990 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,990 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,990 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,990 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,990 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $245,990 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $245,990 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,990 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,990 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,990 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,990 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,990 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,990 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,990 Active 17 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $245,990 Active 16 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,963
• − Insurance: −$1,321
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$7,686
• Taxable loss: −$7,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,912
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,110–$21,330 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and landscaping. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bolivia Elementary D- NC #542/1,410 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle South Brunswick Middle D NC #160/475 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High South Brunswick High C+ NC #216/535 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Boiling Spring Lakes

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #542
• US rank: #19781

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Boiling Spring Lakes, NC
• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,762
• Household income: $82,692
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.19%
• Current HPI: 142.5667
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B